Jets vs. Colts Spread at Indianapolis -7
Carrie Stroup here with your Jets vs. Colts spread from Sportsbook.ag Line: Indianapolis -7, Total: 47
New Jets head coach Todd Bowles looks to improve to 2-0 on Monday night when his squad visits Andrew Luck and a Colts team looking to rebound from a Week 1 drubbing at the hands of the Bills.
Contrary to public opinion, the Jets defense has been just as awful as the offense in the previous four years. New York finished ranked 19th or worse in scoring defense every year since 2011 including being in the bottom four in turnover margin each of the past three. However, things may be on the up-and-up as Bowles’ unit forced a league-high five turnovers in the season-opening, 31-10 trouncing of the Browns.
Indy QB Andrew Luck was not himself in Week 1, completing just 53% of his throws while serving up a pair of interceptions in a 27-14 defeat in Buffalo. He tipped his cap to Rex Ryan’s defense and he’s moving on, but unfortunately he’s moving on without star WR T.Y. Hilton (knee) for the foreseeable future. But the numbers say Luck will bounce back under the Monday lights. In his career, the Colts are 9-2 SU the week after Luck throws multiple interceptions including the last four times it happened last season. He is also 19-6 ATS (including postseason) in his career in the comforts of Lucas Oil Stadium while completing 2% more of his throws and throwing nine fewer picks overall.
Indy holds a 9-5 SU mark at home against the Jets since 1992, but New York won the last meeting in Luck’s rookie year of 2012, by a 35-9 score. In the past two seasons, the Colts are 17-2 SU when amassing 100+ yards on the ground. Since 2013, Indy has proven more than capable of bouncing back, going 6-0 ATS when losing by 10+ points.
The Jets defense will be missing a handful of key contributors against last season’s 6th-ranked scoring offense on Monday night. CB Antonio Cromartie is doubtful with knee issues, 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year DT Sheldon Richardson is suspended three more games, while CB Dee Milliner, S Antonio Allen, and DT Kevin Vickerson are all on IR. The Colts defense could also be thin with LB Robert Mathis (Achilles) and CBs Greg Toler (neck) and D'Joun Smith (knee) all questionable.
The last time a Todd Bowles-led defense prepared to play Luck was a 2013 drubbing in the desert, won 40-11 by the Cardinals. What his defensive unit did to that Colts offense was plenty impressive. Indy was limited to just 55 offensive plays, 159 passing yards, 5-of-13 third down conversions and more penalty yards (89) than rushing yards (80).
The Jets won’t need to look hard to find a winning formula against Luck, just last week their former head coach Rex Ryan and his team held the star quarterback in check. Buffalo ran the ball for nearly 150 yards while not turning the ball over and keeping its quarterback off the turf for the entire game. The Jets have the ability to duplicate that effort, as RBs Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell combined for 153 rushing yards and a pair of scores while QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was an efficient 15-of-24 with two touchdowns and an interception. Fitzpatrick is known for making quick reads and getting the ball out, so look for WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to have big games inside Lucas Oil Stadium.
When the Jets offense has been able to accumulate 300-to-350 total yards, they’re 6-3 ATS in the past three years. The Jets forced and recovered four fumbles, intercepted backup Johnny Manziel after knocking out starter Josh McCown, and sacked Browns’ quarterbacks three times. Over the past three years, New York is 3-1 ATS when forcing two turnovers and is 7-2 when forcing and committing the same number of miscues.
Since coming into the league, T.Y. Hilton has steadily ascended to the class of the elite pass catchers in the game. As a rookie, Hilton finished 30th in receiving yards followed by 18th in 2013 and 6th in the NFL last year with 1,345 yards. Good thing Indy picked up veteran WR Andre Johnson from Houston. Johnson, like most Colts, struggled in the season opener, hauling in just four of his 10 targets for 24 yards. Look for young WRs Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett to step up and provide Luck with some downfield options in Hilton’s absence. One concern for Colts fans should be their QB's last four regular season performances. Since Week 15 of last season, Luck is completing just 57% of his throws with six touchdown passes and five interceptions while going 2-2. Indy is also just 2-5 SU since 2013 when Luck throws multiple picks, which he did in his only career game against the Jets.
A little help from the running game wouldn’t hurt either, as the team only totaled 64 rushing yards on 17 carries including just 31 yards from top RB Frank Gore, who is questionable for Monday due to an injured calf.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
