Line on the Louisville-Texas A&M Music City Bowl Game
Carrie Stroup here with your line on the Louisville-Texas A&M Music City Bowl game Louisville -3.5, Total: 49.5
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (7-5) vs. TEXAS A&M AGGIES (8-4)
Louisville tries to remain hot when it faces a slumping Texas A&M team down to its third-string quarterback in Wednesday night's Music City Bowl in Nashville. The Cardinals opened the year 0-3 but have won seven of their past nine games, while the Aggies began 5-0 before a 3-4 SU slide (1-6 ATS) in their past seven contests.
Louisville (6-6 ATS), which is playing in its sixth straight bowl, leans heavily on dual-threat freshman QB Lamar Jackson, who is coming off a career-high 186 rushing yards.
For Texas A&M (5-7 ATS) to win its fifth straight bowl in five years, the team needs to protect the football. The Aggies have 13 giveaways in their four losses, with at least three turnovers each game. That could be easier said than done though, as both top QBs Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray transferred from the program in the past month, leaving sophomore QB Jake Hubenak as the top signal-caller on the roster.
There are plenty of reasons for bettors to choose either side on Wednesday, as Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino (3-0 all-time versus A&M) is 24-9 ATS coming off two straight games going Over the total in his coaching career and his team benefits from its opponent's brutal 4-15 ATS mark when facing a winning team in the past three seasons.
Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 16-7 ATS in his career after two straight games of forcing one or less turnovers, and his Wednesday opponent is only 4-13 ATS after holding a team to 100 or less rushing yards since 2013.
Louisville's offense has a respectable 28.8 PPG on 406 total YPG this season, but has been especially strong in the past three games with 36.7 PPG on 423 total YPG. The club chooses to run the football 54% of the time, resulting in 160 YPG on 4.3 YPC, and is even more effective through the air with 247 passing YPG on 7.7 YPA.
Freshman QB Lamar Jackson leads the team in both passing yards (1,613 on 7.3 YPA) and rushing yards (734 on 5.2 YPC), but has completed only 56% of his throws with 10 TD and 8 INT. Although he has connected on a mere 17-of-38 passes (45%) in the past two weeks, he did run for a season-high 186 yards and 2 TD in the regular-season finale at Kentucky.
Junior RB Brandon Radcliff (587 rush yds, 4.6 YPC, 7 TD) is coming on strong with 324 rushing yards (6.2 YPC) and 4 TD during the past four games.
The Cardinals defense has been fierce all season with 24.3 PPG and 323 total YPG allowed, but they have been lit up for 33.3 PPG and 374 total YPG in the past three games. The run-stop unit has been excellent in holding opponents to 119 rushing YPG on 3.3. YPC, while the passing defense has been more ordinary in allowing 205 YPG on 6.6 YPA. The whole unit has done a nice job in forcing turnovers with multiple takeaways on seven different occasions, and that could occur again versus an Aggies offense with 3+ turnovers in five of their past seven contests.
Despite all the miscues, Texas A&M's offense still produces 28.3 PPG on 423 total YPG. The team has a nearly even split of 39 rushing attempts per game and 36 passes per game, and thrives in both methods with 172 rushing YPG (4.4 YPC) and 251 passing YPG (6.9 YPA).
The 6-foot-3, 195-pound Hubenak has played sparingly this season and the results haven't been good: 12-for-27, 92 yards (3.4 YPA), 1 TD, 0 INT. In his two outings in November, Hubenak completed only 5-of-15 throws for 32 yards. But the sophomore does have a pair of sure-handed receivers in WRs Christian Kirk (70 rec, 925 yds, 6 TD) and Josh Reynolds (40 rec, 730 yds, 18.3 avg, 5 TD). The freshman Kirk has four 100-yard efforts this year, while the junior Reynolds has six games of 70+ yards including three over the century mark.
The team's most important player on Wednesday night will be senior RB Tra Carson (1,059 rush yds, 4.8 YPC, 6 TD), who will likely carry the football 25 times to take the pressure off his untested quarterback. Carson is finishing his career on a high note with 535 rushing yards on exactly 100 carries (5.4 YPC) over his past five games.
The undesirable quarterback situation will also put more pressure on the Aggies defense, but this unit has excelled all season (21.6 PPG allowed, 367 total YPG allowed), especially over the past three games (12.0 PPG allowed, 259 total YPG allowed). Although the front seven has given up 206 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC, the passing defense has held opposing quarterbacks to a mere 161 YPG on 5.8 YPA. Texas A&M does not force a ton of turnovers (18), but is facing an opponent with multiple giveaways in nine of 12 games this season.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
