NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Preview Browns vs Bengals
The Bengals try to close the first half of the season unbeaten when they entertain their in-state rival Browns on Thursday night.
Sportsbook.ag NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-6) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cincinnati -11, Total: 46
Cincinnati enters the midway point of the season without a loss either SU (7-0) or ATS (6-0-1), after winning two straight road contests at Buffalo (34-21) and Pittsburgh (16-10) last week. Cleveland has dropped three in a row to fall to 2-6 SU and 3-4-1 ATS for the year, which includes getting outscored 58 to 26 over the past two weeks by St. Louis and Arizona.
Recently, this has been a bizarre series, with the past five matchups all ending in double-digit margins, with the Browns holding the 3-2 edge both SU and ATS. In last year's two games, the road team won by at least three touchdowns both times with the Bengals falling 24-3 at home in November before pitching a 30-0 shutout in December.
There are plenty of betting trends for both teams in this contest, as Cleveland is 8-1 ATS after an ATS loss in the past two seasons, and underdogs of 10.5 or more points, after 3+ straight defeats, are 38-14 ATS in the past 10 seasons against an opponent coming off a win.
Bettors expecting Cincinnati to win big can point to the club's 14-4 ATS mark and 29.4 PPG at home since 2013, or its 24-13 ATS record coming off a division win under head coach Marvin Lewis.
In terms of injuries, the big news here concerns Cleveland QB Johnny Manziel getting the start for the banged up Josh McCown. Manziel has been a polarizing figure since he arrived in the NFL and he was the Cleveland QB who got the start in that 30-0 home loss to Cincinnati a year ago, throwing two INT's and completing 10 passes for just 80 yards Manziel will have to be exponentially better this time around for the Browns to have a shot as double-digit underdogs.
Cleveland's offense has really hurt itself with turnovers this year with 17 giveaways, including nine during its three-game losing skid. The ground game has topped 110 yards just once all season (116 in Week 2) and is averaging a meager 75 rushing YPG on 3.3 YPC over the past six contests. Both of the club's top rushers (RBs Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson) are averaging 3.2 YPC with just one touchdown between them.
The Browns defense continues to be gashed on a regular basis, allowing 27.0 PPG on 405 total YPG (6.2 yards per play). The run defense has been especially porous in surrendering 147 YPG on 4.8 YPC, but the injury-depleted secondary has also struggled in giving up 258 YPG on 7.5 YPA and 59% completions. The defense has been more opportunistic though with eight forced turnovers in the past three weeks which followed a stretch of one takeaway in the previous three games.
Cincinnati's offense continues to thrive this season with 28.3 PPG and 394 total YPG (6.3 yards per play). While the ground game has a beefy 136 YPG on 4.4 YPC, it has been the passing of QB Andy Dalton that has kept this team unbeaten. Dalton continues to enjoy a career year with 278 passing YPG on 8.6 YPA with 15 TD and just 4 INT. But his career numbers versus Cleveland aren't very good with a 5-3 SU record (3-4-1 ATS), 194 passing YPG (6.2 YPA), 11 TD and 11 INT. He was dreadful in two meetings last season, completing only 42% of his throws for 101.5 YPG, 0 TD and 4 INT.
Although superstar WR A.J. Green (46 rec, 649 yds, 4 TD) remains the go-to receiver, Dalton has also done a great job of mixing in TE Tyler Eifert (32 rec, 381 yds, 6 TD) and WR Marvin Jones (26 rec, 333 yds, 3 TD) to keep the double-teams away from Green.
Although second-year RB Jeremy Hill is having a rough season with 292 rushing yards on 3.3 YPC, he has scored six touchdowns, including five on the ground. RB Giovani Bernard has been a big part of many of those touchdown drives with 439 rushing yards on 5.6 YPC and two scores.
Cincinnati's defense allows only 18.9 PPG, but has surrendered 369 total YPG this year, including 404 YPG in three home games. The run-stop unit gives up 110 YPG on 5.0 YPC, but the passing defense has also underachieved with allowing a 68% completion rate, 258 YPG and 6.6 YPA. The Bengals tied a season high with three takeaways last week in Pittsburgh and are now up to 12 forced turnovers in seven games this season.
