Pac-12 Championship Betting Preview - STANFORD CARDINAL (10-2) vs. USC TROJANS (8-4)
No. 9 Stanford meets unranked USC in Saturday’s Pac-12 Championship game.
STANFORD CARDINAL (10-2) vs. USC TROJANS (8-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -5, Total: 61
The Cardinal (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) enter this weekend’s conference title game riding high off last Saturday’s thrilling, last-second 38-36 victory over Notre Dame, and will be looking to win their third conference championship in four seasons.
After a rocky start to the 2015 campaign and a mid-season coaching change, the Trojans (8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS) have won five of their past six contests. They beat arch rival UCLA last week 40-21 to secure a first-place finish in the Pac-12 South Division.
Stanford, a small favorite this weekend, upset then-No. 6 USC 41-31 in the earlier matchup this season in Week 3. Dating back to 1992, the Trojans are 13-11 SU against their opponent, though the Cardinal have a 13-10-1 edge ATS.
Bettors looking to back Stanford have several trends in their favor, as the team is 33-17 ATS in road games against good passing teams (250+ passing YPG) since 1992, and 17-4 ATS over the same time period on the road after playing a game where 70+ total points were scored. USC doesn’t have many trends running in its direction, though it is 19-7 ATS on the road off 2+ consecutive Overs since 1992 and 2-1 ATS versus its opponent over the past three seasons.
Stanford’s offense has been consistently prolific this season, scoring at least 30 points in all but one game this season, and averaging 36.9 PPG (20th in FBS) and 438 total YPG of offense (39th in nation). Senior QB Kevin Hogan went 18-of-23 (78%) for 279 yards in his first meeting with USC earlier this season, adding a pair of touchdown throws and 28 rushing yards.
Sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, the NCAA leader in yards from scrimmage this season, had a relatively quiet game against the Trojans in September, gaining “only” 115 rushing yards on 26 attempts and adding three receptions for 37 yards. RB Remound Wright, the team’s touchdown leader, ran in three touchdowns in that Sept. 19 victory.
Stanford’s key to success this season has been its mastery of game flow – the team holds the ball for an average of 35:19 per contest, and limited USC to just 20:31 of offense earlier this year. The Cardinal defense limits opponents to 23.2 PPG (43rd in FBS), but has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks by giving up 32.0 PPG and 488 YPG in their past three games.
USC has been almost as productive on offense as its opponent, racking up 36.0 PPG (26th in FBS) and 457 YPG (32nd in nation). Senior QB Cody Kessler virtually matched Hogan’s performance in their last match, connecting on 25-of-32 throws (78%) for 272 yards and 3 TD.
Kessler’s primary offensive weapon, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, has been the unrivaled centerpiece of the Trojans offense by tallying more than double the number of receptions (74) as the next highest receiver and leading the team with 10 touchdowns. Smith-Schuster caught eight balls for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinal earlier this year in one of his best performances of the season.
USC’s running game is handled between RBs Justin Davis (140 rush, 776 yds, 5 TD), Ronald Jones (139 rush, 890 yds, 7 TD), and Tre Madden (84 rush, 450 yds, 5 TD).
The Trojans’ defense spots opponents 24.7 PPG (51st in FBS) and 400 total YPG, though they have not performed as well on the road, surrendering 29.6 PPG and 436 total YPG. The squad averages a possession time of 29:49 on defense per game, a stat that will likely be tested by Stanford.
