Week 12 College Football Betting Lines: LSU vs. Ole Miss, MSU vs. OSU, Baylor vs. OSU
Gambling911.com has your Week 12 College Football betting lines for some of the weekend’s biggest games.
LSU TIGERS (7-2) at OLE MISS REBELS (7-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Ole Miss -6, Total: 55.5
No. 15 LSU and No. 22 Ole Miss will renew their SEC West rivalry on Saturday afternoon in Oxford, MS.
The Tigers (4-5 ATS) have lost two straight games to fall out of conference title contention and are 0-3 ATS on the road this season. The Rebels (5-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week following their heart-breaking 53-52 overtime home loss to Arkansas, but can still win their division with two victories and an Alabama loss to Auburn next week.
These teams have played three straight close games where the home team has prevailed each time by six points or less. Ole Miss won the last meeting in Oxford two years ago by a 27-24 score as a 9.5-point home underdog, and LSU was a 4.5-point home 'dog to the No. 3 Rebels last year when it pulled out a 10-7 win.
The betting trends are pretty even for both sides in this matchup, as the Tigers are 9-0 ATS on the road after being outrushed by 125+ yards in its previous game since 1992, but also 0-7 ATS on the road following a home game since 2013. Ole Miss is 18-9 ATS at home under head coach Hugh Freeze, but favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning record coming off an extremely close conference loss (3 points or less) are just 20-50 ATS when facing another winning team since 1992.
LSU has posted strong offensive numbers of 33.6 PPG on 420 total YPG (6.7 yards per play) this season. The offense is much more reliant on the ground game with 42 rushing attempts per contest (254 YPG, 6.0 YPC) and only 20 passing attempts per game (166 YPG, 8.1 YPA).
Superstar RB Leonard Fournette (FBS-high 1,643 rush yds, 17 TD) was near the top of everybody's Heisman list after rushing for at least 150 yards in each of the first seven games, but he has been limited to a meager 61 rushing YPG on 3.2 YPC over the past two defeats. Fournette did run well against Ole Miss last year though with 113 yards on 23 carries (4.9 YPC).
If Fournette can't gain yards against a talented Rebels front seven, sophomore QB Brandon Harris may have to throw 35 times like he did last week when he completed 21 passes for 271 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.
The Tigers have a very talented defense that allows only 24.3 PPG and 343 total YPG (5.2 yards per play). But because the run-stop unit has surrendered 549 rushing yards and 6 TD over the past two games, the season numbers have jumped to 134 YPG allowed on 4.1 YPC. The passing defense has been decent with 209 YPG allowed on 6.3 YPA, but the entire unit must be ready for a challenge after the Rebels racked up 52 points and 590 total yards in its last game.
Ole Miss scores a hefty 40.7 PPG on 527 total YPG this season, and those numbers are even beefier at home (50.5 PPG, 578 total YPG). This offense doesn't like to huddle up, and the fast pace has led to a subpar 26:15 average time of possession. The Rebels are known more for their passing game, but have an evenly balanced offensive attack with 178 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 349 passing YPG (8.9 YPA). Over the past three weeks, they have averaged more than 203 rushing YPG.
The passing game continues to thrive with QB Chad Kelly (3,224 pass yds, 8.9 YPA, 23 TD, 12 INT) frequently targeting top WR Laquon Treadwell (68 rec, 1,002 yds, 7 TD). The junior pass catcher has gone over 100 receiving yards in five straight weeks, scoring at least one touchdown in every one of those games.
Ole Miss has a wealth of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and that has translated to opponents scoring only 23.0 PPG on 374 total YPG, including a mere 16.5 PPG in Oxford. Opposing rushers are gaining 126 YPG on a paltry 3.2 YPC while opposing quarterbacks are having more success with a 60% completion rate, 248 passing YPG and 6.3 YPA. Turnovers have not come very easily in the past seven games with just seven total takeaways in this span.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (9-1) at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (10-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Ohio State -14, Total: 53
Reigning national champion No. 3 Ohio State hopes to stay undefeated Saturday in a showdown against visiting Big Ten rival No. 9 Michigan State.
The Spartans (9-1 SU and 3-7 ATS) bounced back from their sole loss of the season (Nov. 7 at Nebraska) to dispatch Maryland 24-7 last weekend, but lost star QB Connor Cook to injury in the second half. The Buckeyes (10-0 SU, 4-6 ATS), meanwhile, saw the return of their star QB J.T. Barrett from a suspension last weekend as they easily knocked off Illinois 28-3 to improve to a perfect 30-0 against Big Ten opponents in the regular season under head coach Urban Meyer.
Ohio State has gotten the better of the Spartans in recent history with advantages of 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS since 1992, and in their meeting last year, 14th-ranked Ohio State upset 8th-ranked Michigan State in a 49-37 shootout.
Neither team has been a profitable bet against the spread this season, but both have strong trends running in their favor to cover the spread this week. The Spartans are 13-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the past three seasons, and 10-1 ATS after having won five or six out of their previous seven games over the same time period. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are 18-5 ATS at home after outrushing an opponent by 200+ yards in the prior game since 1992, and 6-0 ATS in the past two seasons versus good teams (10+ PPG margin).
Michigan State will be closely watching QB Connor Cook, who was sidelined with a shoulder injury in last week’s victory over Maryland and is listed as probable for Saturday. Additionally, DL Joel Heath (leg) is questionable for the Spartans. Ohio State has two defensive additions to its injury report this week, as DB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and LB Chris Worley (undisclosed) are both questionable to play.
Under the leadership of Senior QB Connor Cook, Michigan State’s offense has put 32.9 PPG (42nd in nation) and averaged a respectable 406 total YPG (61st in FBS). Cook averages 31 passing attempts per game for 17.4 completions and 247.2 passing YPG, while throwing for 21 TD and just 4 INT. In the event Cook’s shoulder injury forces him to the sidelines again on Saturday, he’ll be spelled by backup QB Tyler O’Connor, who has thrown just 11 times for six completions, 44 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The team would also want Cook to play in the game considering how well he played versus OSU last year when he threw for 358 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. WR Aaron Burbridge has been Cook’s No. 1 option through the air this season, catching 64 passes for 1,011 yards and six touchdowns.
RB Gerald Holmes has emerged as the late-season preferred option on the ground, running an average of 20 times for 100 YPG and a touchdown in each of his past two games.
The Spartans’ defense has been relatively solid on the season, allowing opponents 22.3 PPG (37th in nation) and 364 total YPG (46th in FBS). The team is especially effective against the run on the road, giving up just 100 rushing YPG on a meager 3.2 YPC.
Ohio State has managed to stay undefeated despite a quarterback competition that has only recently been settled, all while scoring an average of 36.4 PPG (28th in nation) and generating 453 YPG (33rd in FBS). Sophomore QB J.T. Barrett has established himself as the starter over junior QB Cardale Jones, leading the team to victory over Illinois after serving a one-game suspension for operating a motor vehicle under the influence. Barrett has proven to be the more athletic option, complementing his eight passing touchdowns with an equal number of running scores. Last season in East Lansing, he lit up the Spartans for 386 total yards and five touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing).
Amid the instability of the QB position, junior RB Ezekiel Elliott has been the heart of the team’s offense and the third-best rusher in the nation. Elliott averages 22 rushes per game for 142.5 YPG and has contributed 16 TD. Last season against the Spartans, he ran for 154 yards on 23 carries (6.7 YPC) and a pair of touchdowns.
The Buckeyes’ defense has been elite this season, holding opponents to a meager 13.8 PPG (2nd in nation) and 298 YPG (9th in FBS). The team’s performance has peaked over the past several weeks, allowing just 8.0 PPG in their past three games.
BAYLOR BEARS (8-1) at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (10-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma State -1, Total: 77.5
No. 6 Oklahoma State tries to remain unbeaten when it hosts No. 10 Baylor on Saturday night.
The Bears are only 5-4 ATS this season after dropping three straight games ATS including their first SU loss last week to Oklahoma, 44-34. The Cowboys are also 5-4 ATS for the season, but are 4-1 ATS over the past five games where they have scored at least 33 points. But the one ATS defeat in this span was a tight 35-31 win at 12-point underdog Iowa State last Saturday.
The home team has won the past five matchups in this series, usually in dominating fashion (55-28, 59-24, 41-34, 49-17 and 49-28). But Oklahoma State has historically been the better play in this matchup, going 16-4 SU (15-4 ATS) against Baylor since 1992, including 10-0 SU (9-1 ATS) in Stillwater.
Both teams have several positive trends, such as the Bears going 28-14 ATS after scoring 31+ points in two straight games under head coach Art Briles, and the Cowboys posting a 41-20 ATS mark under head coach Mike Gundy when the total is at least 63 points.
Baylor has quite a potent offense with 54.8 PPG on 638 total YPG (8.1 yards per play), and the numbers have been just as impressive on the road (54.0 PPG, 642 total YPG, 8.7 yards per play) where the team is 4-0 SU. Offensive balance is key, as the Bears have rushed for a hefty 292 YPG on 6.3 YPC while throwing for a massive 346 YPG on 10.8 YPA.
The team lost QB Seth Russell (10.5 YPA, 29 TD, 6 INT) to a season-ending neck injury two weeks ago, but freshman backup QB Jarrett Stidham has actually been better than Russell this season with 11.4 YPA, 11 TD and 2 INT. It certainly helps to have the ability to target WR Corey Coleman, who has caught 61 passes for 1,229 yards (20.1 avg) and 20 touchdowns this year.
The other main player for the Bears offense is junior RB Shock Linwood (1,149 rush yds, 7.4 YPC, 9 TD), who has rushed for 100+ yards in six of the past eight games. Linwood also ran for 113 yards on 21 carries (5.4 YPC) and a touchdown in the win over Oklahoma State last year.
The Bears defense has performed pretty well in allowing just 27.1 PPG and 402 total YPG (5.1 yards per play), especially considering the unit has been on the field for an average of 34:31. Opponents are running for only 173 YPG on 3.8 YPC while the passing defense is allowing 229 YPG on 6.8 YPA. Baylor has also been great in forcing turnovers with at least two takeaways in seven of nine games, totaling 22 for the season. But its Saturday opponent has just two giveaways in the past four contests combined.
Oklahoma State has managed to stay undefeated with a pass-happy offense that has scored 43.6 PPG on 497 total YPG. The passing game has thrown for 353 YPG on 9.4 YPA while the rushing attack has only 144 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Sophomore QB Mason Rudolph has thrown for 3,161 yards (9.3 YPA), 18 TD and 8 INT this season, including 679 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT over the past two weeks. Sophomore WR James Washington leads the team with 820 receiving yards and 7 TD, with six of those coming in the past four contests. Washington caught four passes for 114 yards (28.5 avg) and a touchdown last year in Waco.
On the ground, junior RB Chris Carson (446 rush yds, 4.1 YPC, 4 TD) is coming off one of his better games with 70 yards on 12 carries (5.8 YPC), and will look to help his team gain at least 150 yards on the ground for the fourth time in five contests.
Defensively, the Cowboys are giving up only 24.5 PPG on 393 total YPG with both the front seven and back four playing consistent football. Opposing rushers gain a pedestrian 143 YPG on 4.1 YPC while opposing quarterbacks are throwing for 235 YPG on 6.9 YPA. The unit has also helped itself greatly in making plays on the football with at least one takeaway in eight straight games where it has totaled 23 forced turnovers.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
