Week 17 NFL Betting Lines 2016 - Chargers vs. Broncos, Raiders vs. Chiefs

Carrie Stroup here with your Week 17 2016 betting lines with previews of the Chargers vs. Broncos and Raiders vs. Chiefs games.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-11) at DENVER BRONCOS (11-4)

Denver -9.0, Total: 41.5

The Broncos will host the Chargers in a game with major playoff implications in their regular season finale.

The good news for the Broncos is they’re in the playoffs, and can even earn the top seed in the AFC with a win and loss by the Patriots. At the same time, they can also fall all the way to the #6 seed should they fall, and Kansas City & New York both win their games.

San Diego (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS), despite falling at Oakland 23-20 (OT), did win their 3^rd straight game ATS and 4^th in their last five games. The Chargers were unable to find a way to win once again, dropping to 3-8 SU in one-possession games this season.

Denver (11-4 SU, 7-6-2 ATS) rallied from a 14-point deficit for the 3^rd time this season, clinching a playoff berth with a 20-17 (OT) win against AFC North champion Cincinnati. Despite possessing the ball nearly nine and a half minutes less than the Bengals, the Broncos gained nearly 100 more total yards, thanks in large part to both their 8^th 100+ yard rushing performance this season, and 8^th occurrence holding the opposition under 200 passing yards.

Trends for this game swing slightly in Denver’s favor, though there are inconsistencies in past coaching and QB performances for both teams. Brock Osweiler has not covered the spread in his last three starts (0-2 w/ 1 push) after covering the spread in two of his first three starts this season/his career. Phillip Rivers is 45-50 ATS since the start of the 2010 season, but over that same span, he’s also 25-21 ATS as an underdog, 19-11 as a road underdog.

Since taking over in 2013, Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy is 15-9 in road games, 14-6 as a road underdog, though his success against fellow AFC West teams has been far more difficult to come by, covering the spread just six times in 18 opportunities.

First-year Denver head coach Gary Kubiak has found success following close wins, going 5-0 ATS following a victory of six points or less, but he’s struggled to maintain early season success, covering the spread just three times in the last 10 games. Denver does hold the recent head-to-head advantage, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS since the start of the 2013 season.

The Chargers’ once red-hot offense has cooled significantly in recent weeks. After going over 400 total yards five times in their first seven games, San Diego has failed to reach 350 total yards five times in their last seven games. Phillip Rivers has kept the passing game near the top of the league all season long, as the unit enters Week 17 averaging 292.3 YPG on the year (4^th in NFL). He will need to put up an admirable effort against Denver on Sunday or the team will be blown out.

Denver’s QB controversy has been only a minor inconvenience for the team this season, thanks in large part to their defense. Entering Week 17, Denver has allowed 15 total YPG less than the next best team in the league, with a dominance and is as balanced as it gets: 1^st in passing YPG allowed, 2^nd in rushing YPG allowed. Only a 34-point performance by Pittsburgh two weeks ago has kept the Broncos from the top spot in PPG allowed; the team is currently 4^th in the league in that metric.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-8) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6)

Kansas City -7.0, Total: 43.5

The Chiefs will attempt to complete an improbable ride to the AFC West title on Sunday when they host the division rival Raiders.

The Chiefs can win the division and earn the #3 seed in the AFC with a win and Broncos loss against the Chargers. They have already clinched at least a wild card spot, though. Oakland (7-8 SU and ATS) got by fellow AFC west foe San Diego, 23-20 (OT), guaranteeing their 1^st non 10+ loss season since 2011. The Raiders found the win column despite being outgained by 62 yards (averaging fewer YPP), and committing seven more penalties for 46 more yards.

Kansas City (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) won their 9^th consecutive game SU against the Browns, 17-13, despite a season-low 122 passing yards and allowing a season-high 232 rushing yards. Much like the Raiders, the Chiefs were outgained and averaged fewer YPP, yet still found a way to win the game; the Chiefs also converted a worse % of their 3^rd downs than the Browns.

Betting and historical trends for the game lean slightly in Kansas City’s favor, mostly due to their head-to-head advantage. The Chiefs are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Raiders since the start of the 2013 season. Derek Carr is 15-16 ATS in his two seasons in the league, including a 9-6 ATS record in road games – 8-4 as a road underdog. Alex Smith is 47-31 ATS since the 2010 season, including a 32-26 mark as the favorite – 19-16 as the home favorite. Smith is also 6-1 ATS in his career against the Raiders, though two of those victories did come when Smith was with the 49ers.

Oakland first year head coach Jack Del Rio is 4-0 ATS as road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points this season, with victories SU in three of those four games SU; the Raiders are also 29-14 ATS as a 3.5-7 point road underdog since 1992. 7-4 is the recurring record for Kansas City who have put up that record ATS since Week 5 of this season, as well as the favorite in all games this season, as well as when playing teams with losing records in the 2^nd half of the season over the last three years.

Despite a modest 7-8 record, the Raiders have struggled on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 22^nd in the league in both total YPG and total YPG allowed. The defense has found some success stopping the run, holding four teams under 50 yards and allowing 99.3 YPG (9^th in the league), but have struggled mightily stopping the pass, giving up more than 250 yards on 11 occasions and allowing 266 YPG (27^th in the league). Oakland has also allowed 25.1 PPG (21^st in the league).

Derek Carr will need to find a way to get the offense moving, as the Chiefs have been dominant defensively this season and likely won’t have much of an issue moving the ball against the Raiders’ poor defense.

Kansas City’s post-Week 6 success can be greatly attributed to their defense, which has held opponents under 20 points seven times and forced multiple turnovers seven times during that span. Overall, the Chiefs’ +15 TO margin ranks 2^nd in the league. Despite no individual player amongst the league’s top 30 rushers, the Chiefs have averaged 123.7 YPG on the ground, good for 7^th in the league. Alex Smith has been an excellent game manager under center as well, ranking in the top 10 in the league in completion percentage and QB rating. As long as he can take care of the ball in this one then the Chiefs should be able to come away with a victory.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter