2018 NFL Picks – Week 15 Fade The Public Play
Our zigging worked last week against the zagging public, giving us a pair of winners on our fade plays. Not only did the Patriots fail to cover, they will go down in history as the team that squandered a lead in one of the most improbable walkoff losses.
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That hook and lateral play conjured up memories of the Dolphins 1981 playoff game against San Diego. The only difference is the Fins won this one to cash our winning ticket. We also saw some dysfunction with the Vikings and sided with Seattle on Monday, and that also turned out to be a winner. Sure enough, Minnesota cut ties with O-coordinator Mike DeFilippo shortly after producing just a late touchdown.
Oddsmakers have set the lines for the Week 15 slate of NFL games, and now it’s time for the betting public to be heard. Winners in three of their last four games, the Browns are getting support of over 60 percent of the public as a field goal dog in Denver. The Texans are getting plenty of support as a 6-point favorite in their Saturday matchup with the Jets.
Now, let’s take a look at a few Week 15 games to see where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu.
Week 15 Fade the Public Plays
Oakland Raiders ( +2.5 ) at Cincinnati Bengals
A win last week over the Steelers and a game this week against the Bengals has a lot of folks feeling good about the Silver and Black. The Raiders are getting 2.5-points on the opening line and 71 percent of the support. Oakland has shown some competitiveness the last two games with a near-miss against the Chiefs before upsetting Pittsburgh. That tends to happen when a team is eliminated from playoff contention. Besides, the Steelers are in a massive rut right now and you know things aren’t going well when you’re kicker slips on a game-tying field goal attempt.
The Bengals have fallen hard and they’ll try to end a five-game losing skid on Sunday. They’ll have to do it without Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, who are done for the rest of the year, which is another reason why the public is gravitating to the visitors. But we saw Cincy play one of its better games last week against the Chargers and I’m not ready to concede that they are worse than the Raiders just yet.
Buffalo Bills ( -2.5 ) vs. Detroit Lions
With the Bills getting over three-quarters of the play, the line jumped from a pick ‘em to Buffalo -2.5. The Bills have played as a favorite just once this season, that coming last week in a 27-24 loss to the Jets, so the experience is rather new and not very successful. We’ve seen the Bills play inspired football over the past month, winning two straight before a dropping their last two each by four points. That and the NFL’s top-ranked defense have given fans confidence that the Bills can take down the Lions despite giving points on the current line.
The Lions ended a stretch of five losses in six games by defeating the Cardinals last week. However it wasn’t anything to write home about. Their struggles on offense have been well documented and the absence of Marvin Jones Jr. and Kerryon Johnson has limited the group even further. Still, they are playing the Bills, who have done little all season offensively. Detroit will key on stopping Josh Allen from running wild and that should be enough for them to triumph.
San Francisco 49ers ( +4 ) vs. Seattle Seahawks
With the Niners getting some early play we’ve seen the line wagered down from Seattle -6.5 on the opener to its current -4. Sure, Frisco got a huge game from George Kittle and beat Denver last week, but it is the same team that got plastered by the Seahawks 43-16 just two weeks ago, and Richard Sherman gave his former team more ammo by claiming the Hawks were a “middle of the road” club.
One more nugget that has me leaning towards the Seahawks minus the points is the fact that they can lock up a playoff spot with a victory. And it doesn’t get any sweeter than doing it on the Niners home field. While the rivalry has cooled and the matchup has lost some significance over the years, this remains one of the most intense battles in the NFC. Toss in some spew by Sherman and Seattle being that close to returning to the postseason, I’ll take the visitors minus the low spread.
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