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The Mets-Braves meetings have resulted in a 5-5 record for both teams over their last ten.
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Zack Wheeler (5-4, 4.87 ERA) was tagged for nine runs (for fantasy owners, only five of those were earned) over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Tuesday.
Remarkably, Wheeler has now allowed 13 home runs this season after allowing 14 all of last season and his ERA jumped from 4.61 to 4.87 as a result.
Back in Mid-May, Wheeler gave up 11 hits versus the Nationals, which became a new career high for him. But he followed that one up with a stellar seven innings performance allowing just three runs in a no-decision. He pitched deeper into the 7th inning after that one for a win versus the Tigers, permitting just three runs in that game as well.
The line on the Braves has dropped dramatically from -175 to -147. That is a warning for us not to back the Braves.
They will put out Mike Soroka 7-1 with his 1.92 ERA.
This one has the makings for an UNDER too. Five of the last ten have gone UNDER the current number of 9. Only three of the last ten have gone OVER that number. The problem is this total is trending from 8.5 to 9 with action being encouraged on the UNDER.
It's tough to see at first but the Mets have the 5th worst bullpen. They have allowed five or more runs in five of their last eight. They have also scored at least five runs in eight of their last ten games.
The ideal argument for Atlanta winning would be Soroka coming off that no decision followed by a loss or another no decision. If Soroka fails to win here again, strongly consider him and the Braves for his next start, which should be Sunday against the Nationals and Erick Fedde (1-1, 3.68). Washington has won seven of the last ten meetings however.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
