NFL Betting Totals Being Set Much Higher With 2018 Rule Changes
Oddsmakers continue to adjust to the new NFL rules that lend to more scoring. Books don't like to overreact to trends with small samplings, but the propensity in which teams are scoring these days is hard to ignore when setting totals.
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"We're just getting crushed on the overs, including last night (Patriots vs. Colts)" said Brent Corobotuic, head linesman at BetDSI. "The public bettors are always going to play the over, and the professional bettors have started to follow suit. For ages, the sharps picked off value with under plays, but they don't hesitate for one second to bet the over now. It's been an adjustment in mindset on our part."
Last night's game between the Patriots and Colts opened with an over/under of 53, but that was bet down to 50 prior to kickoff. The contest easily eclipsed the total with 62 combined points scored.
According to the odds database of online sportsbook BetDSI, the average over/under each week has increased steadily since Week 1.
2018 NFL Regular Season Average Totals by Week (average actual PPG in parentheses)
Week 1: 44.69 PPG (47.81 PPG)
Week 2: 45.06 PPG (46.31 PPG)
Week 3: 46.22 PPG (45.19 PPG)
Week 4: 46.90 PPG (53.40 PPG)
Week 5: 47.63 PPG (current totals)
Since 2003, there have been 13 games with closing totals of 57 points or more. Games with totals of 57.5 or higher since 2003 are 9-0 towards the over (Chiefs at Steelers this week).
The highest total in NFL history is 60. This over/under came during a Raiders-Chiefs Christmas Day matchup in 2004.
This season, there have been four games that opened with a total of 51 or higher that moved at least three points towards the over. All four games went over the total.
The record for points per game for a full season during the Super Bowl era is 46.82 PPG (2013). At the moment (including Week 5 Thursday Night Football), the league is on pace for 48.31 PPG.
The record for touchdowns per game in a season during the Super Bowl era is 5.23 (2013). The current pace is 5.42 touchdowns per game.
