Super Bowl LIII Game Picks – Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
After two weeks of buildup, media hype and senseless interviews, the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will be eager to put on the pads.
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The two weeks leading up to Super Bowl LIII is nothing new for the Pats, who are making their third straight appearance in the Big Game and their ninth in the last 18 seasons. If Super Bowl experience were an indicator of how the game might turn out, New England would have a massive edge as only four Rams have participated. But it isn’t.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
Date and Time: Sunday, February 3, 2019, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Opening NFL Odds: Patriots -2.5, O/U 56.5
Rams vs. Patriots TV Coverage: CBS
Live Betting Odds Analysis
It came with controversy, but the Rams will take it. Getting the benefit of a non-call in the NFC Championship, the Rams avenged a regular season loss to the Saints and advanced to their first Super Bowl since the 2001 season when the club was based in St. Louis, knocking off New Orleans in overtime. It’s been a quite a turnaround for the Rams, who just three seasons ago won four games and were the butt of jokes across the NFL.
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Under Sean McVay the Rams have gone 24-8 during the regular season and posted the second-highest win total in club history with 13 this season. It’s a record number of wins for the LA part of the franchise and matched the 1999 team that went on to post the first and only Super Bowl title in team history. Six times during the season the Rams played as a double-digit favorite on the final line with a 4-2 ATS record in those outings and only once were they the underdog. That happened in the NFC title game where the Rams won outright as a 3-point dog. Under McVay the Rams are 3-2 SU and ATS when getting points.
We can’t write off the Pats just yet. They struggled more than they have recently with a losing road record during the regular season. That prompted many so called experts to predict the team’s demise. Tom Brady had other ideas and the Pats were able to overcome some suspect play during the season to win 11 games and another AFC East title. And they turned it on once the postseason started, gaping the Chargers and putting their road issues to rest with an overtime win in KC to claim the AFC title.
Matchup to Watch
Everyone says the way to beat the Patriots is to pressure Brady. That’s much easier said than done. Brady threw for 691 yards in the first two playoff games and was able to dissect defenses with no disruptions. He has yet to be sacked this postseason and the offensive line play has been solid all year. Brady was sacked just 21 times during the regular season and over the last eight games has been dropped five times.
The Pats haven’t faced anyone quite like Aaron Donald, though. And the defensive player of the year will be tasked with making life difficult for the old man. Donald led the league with 20.5 sacks during the regular season, but has dealt with constant double teams as the Cowboys and Saints made him a priority in the blocking schemes.
The Rams aren’t just about Donald, however. With teams paying attention to him, guys like Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers have broken free. And the mid-season acquisition of Dante Fowler from the Jags paid dividends. Fowler gives the Rams an edge rusher that needs to be accounted for and he has the ability to beat linemen one-on-one.
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Key Stat
Working their game plan to perfection, the Pats were able to possess the football for 44 minutes and ran twice as many plays as the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. That kept KC’s explosive offense off the field and wore down the defense enough to triumph in overtime. The Pats converted 13 of 19 third downs in that game for a ridiculous 68 percent success rate. They also converted 50 percent on third down against the Bolts and have extended drives 20 times on 33 third downs for an impressive 60.6 percent conversion rate.
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LA’s defense was leaky for a good part of the season, but the group made strides once Aqib Talib returned and Fowler joined the squad. They pressured Drew Brees and held the Saints in check in the NFC title game and you can bet Wade Phillips will have a few schemes to throw at Brady. Still, this sets up as an offensive game with two well-balanced teams that can run and throw effectively. It should be close and could come down to special teams play, and I like the Rams to come out ahead.
Super Bowl LIII ATS Betting Pick: Los Angeles +2.5 at BookMaker.eu
Super Bowl LIII Score Prediction: Rams 35, Patriots 31
