Louisville Kentucky Spread at Wildcats -8.5
Carrie Stroup here with your Louisville Kentucky spread with the Wildcats coming in as a big -8.5 favorite. You can find all the Final Four betting odds at Sportsbook.com here and be sure to claim your FREE CASH (restrictions do apply).
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Kentucky -8.5 & 136.5
Opening Line & Total: Wildcats -8.5 & 137.5
The Final Four tips off Saturday with two familiar foes, as Louisville tries to upset in-state rival Kentucky.
When these teams met on New Year’s Eve, the Wildcats shot 29.8% FG (3-of-16 threes) and still won by seven points, 69-62. They dominated the paint, getting to the foul line 43 times and outrebounding Louisville 57-31. Kentucky is 11-4 ATS (73%) in its past 15 NCAA Tournament games when favored, and now it is rolling on offense like never before, averaging 88.0 PPG on 53% FG in this year’s NCAA tourney. Meanwhile, Louisville’s erratic offense is scoring just 63.5 PPG on 42% FG in the NCAAs and has little chance of keeping up with the high-flying ‘Cats.
Louisville is now 8-0 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court this season (4 Big East Tournament wins, 4 NCAA Tournament wins) thanks to a stifling defense, allowing just 56.3 PPG on 38.3% FG in these eight contests. Even though Florida shot 50% in the Elite Eight, the Cardinals held the Gators to 68 points. The Cardinals are now third in the nation in FG Pct. defense (38.0% FG), seventh in steals (8.9 SPG) and 22nd in defending the three (31.7% 3-pt FG).
When these teams met on Dec. 31, the Cardinals had no starter score more than eight points as the five players combined for a mere 26 points on 8-of-35 shooting (22.9%). It was sophomore G Russ Smith (11.6 PPG) who kept them in the game with 30 points on 10-of-20 shooting (3-of-8 threes) off the bench. Smith was also the leading scorer in the Elite Eight win over Florida, tallying 19 points on 6-of-13 FG. Smith now has 15.7 PPG in his past three games, making 6-of-9 threes. But the team’s best player in the NCAA Tournament has been freshman F Chane Behanan (9.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG) who is averaging 14.0 PPG (64% FG) and 7.8 RPG. He had 17 points and seven boards in the win over Florida and will be a key to helping diffuse Kentucky’s great size down low. C Gorgui Dieng (9.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.2 BPG) will also need to have a huge night to upset the Wildcats. Dieng had a pedestrian eight points and six boards against the Gators, but he really made his presence felt in the Sweet 16 against Michigan State on the defensive end with seven blocked shots.
Louisville is at its best when junior PG Peyton Siva (9.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) is on the court and not committing silly fouls. After a brilliant four-game Big East Tournament (13.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG) and a strong NCAA opener against Davidson (17 points, six assists), Siva has just 6.3 PPG (32% FG) in his past three contests. He has 15 fouls in the four tourney games, fouling out of two of those contests. But he is distributing the ball very well with 8.5 APG in his past two games, and Siva had only one turnover in the win over Florida. Senior swingman Kyle Kuric (12.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG) continues to underwhelm in the NCAA Tournament. He’s scoring 9.5 PPG, but has totaled just nine rebounds and two assists in 142 total minutes of playing time.
Kentucky can beat you in so many ways. They score 77.9 PPG (15th in nation) on 48.8% FG (eighth in D-I), while allowing a mere 60.6 PPG on 37.5% FG, easily the best mark in the country. A good part of this suffocating defense is an interior that blocks a nation’s-most 8.6 shots per game and rebounds the basketball at a healthy +7.1 RPG margin (10th in nation). The Wildcats have strong depth, but they don’t have to dip into their bench all that often, as they only commit 14.8 fouls per game, which is the ninth-least amount in the country.
The Wildcats had six players score 8+ points in the 82-70 win over Baylor in the Elite Eight. Freshman C Anthony Davis (14.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 4.6 BPG) had the biggest impact with 18 points (6-of-9 FG), 11 boards and six blocks. Davis is now averaging 14.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG and 4.5 BPG in the NCAA Tournament, and he posted 18 points, 10 boards and six blocks against Louisville on New Year’s Eve. Fellow freshman F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12.0 PPG, 7.6 RPG) scored just 11 points in the first two NCAA games, but he has been tremendous in the past two contests with 21.5 PPG (56% FG, 14-of-14 FT) and 7.5 RPG. He completely dominated the Cardinals in their earlier meeting, throwing down 24 points with 19 rebounds (six offensive). The Wildcats’ other key frontcourt player is 6-foot-9 sophomore Terrence Jones (12.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) who had a huge all-around game Sunday with 12 points, nine rebounds, six assists, three blocks and two steals.
Kentucky’s backcourt tends to get overshadowed by its amazing frontcourt, but these guards sure can play. The team has surpassed 13 turnovers in a game just once in its past 22 contests, tallying 12 games of single-digit turnovers. Freshman PG Marquis Teague (10.0 PPG, 4.8 APG) has 14.5 PPG and 5.3 APG in the tourney and has come a long way since his subpar performance against Louisville (four points, 1-of-8 FG, four turnovers, five fouls). Sophomore SG Doron Lamb (13.6 PPG, 47% 3-pt FG), is the long-range threat who has seven straight double-figure scoring games. He’s averaging 16.8 PPG (9-of-15 threes) in the NCAA tourney. SG Darius Miller comes off the bench, but he is still one of the better guards in the nation. He’s scoring 13.0 PPG on 59% FG and 13-of-14 FT in the NCAA Tournament so far.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
