NBA Betting Preview April 7, 2010
This is Carrie Stroup reporting for Gambling911.com with today's NBA betting preview and a look at the Western Conference.
In the Western Conference of the NBA, a ten-game winning streak for a good team doesn't mean as much as it used to. However, it has positioned the Suns to have an opportunity to gain as high as a #2 seed in the upcoming playoffs. They'll have to finish strong though to do so, starting with tonight's contest vs. the surging Spurs. Phoenix has been installed as a 7-point home favorite according to Sportsbook.com, and with San Antonio on a back-to-back, and the Suns the beneficiaries of a hot system, expect most betting action to come in on the hosts.
On Mar. 13, the Phoenix Suns (50-27, 43-32-2 ATS) stood at 40-26, sixth place in the West. The Suns would embark on 10 consecutive wins, the last four all on the road. Their last contest was away from home at Milwaukee and coach Alvin Gentry prophetically told the local television announcers before the game which they shared with Suns viewers during the broadcast, "We (the Suns) might be in for a stinker".
Gentry was correct, as his squad was playing fourth road game in five days and they trailed the Bucks by 24 points at halftime before making it a respectable 107-98 final as 2.5-point underdogs.
That 10-1 streak (7-3-1 ATS) is your classic half full-half empty argument.
Phoenix moved in a virtual four-way tie for second place in the West with Utah, Dallas and Denver, making the glass half full. However, the reality is they are in fourth place according to the tie-breakers and could conceivably fall to seventh place if they were to lose their next two games and the trailing teams won both of theirs. (This information makes the glass half empty)
There is a real possibility Phoenix could lose two in a row even with three full days of rest; starting with tonight's opponent San Antonio (48-29, 41-35-1 ATS), a game on ESPN at 7:30 Pacific.
The Spurs have won four straight (all covers) by an average of 14.2 points a game and six of seven overall, with their 95-86 win at Sacramento last night.
Tony Parker returned last evening after missing 16 games, but it has been the play of Manu Ginobili in particular why San Antonio is 16-5 in previous 21 games. "I'm feeling really confident right now," said Ginobili, whose averaging 24.9 points in his last 16 outings.
The Spurs are a real nemesis of Phoenix, having eclipsed the Suns from the playoffs in 2003, 2005, 2007-08 and won four of last five meetings (3-2 ATS).
The Spurs create matchup problems for Phoenix, who again lead the NBA in scoring at 110.4 PPG, by slowing the Suns down on offense and taking advantage of their defensive shortcomings.
The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com are not so sure San Antonio can overcome Gentry's team again, installing them as seven-point road underdogs and facing a potent super situation.
Play on explosive offensive teams, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.
When this state of affairs arises, the high scoring team off the crummy performance is 35-11 ATS, 76.1 percent the previous five seasons.
With the Spurs 3-14 ATS after four or more consecutive wins and Phoenix 10-2 ATS playing against a good team with a 60-70 win percentage this season, the odds stack up in their favor.
Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
