Oklahoma State vs. Oregon Point Spread Virtually Nonexistent
Oddsmakers anticipate a close one tonight with Oklahoma State vs. Oregon featuring a point spread of just one point.
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (18-13) vs. OREGON DUCKS (25-9)
NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oregon -1, Total: 136
Oregon and Oklahoma State meet Friday in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in the past three years, with the Cowboys looking for revenge.
It is déjà vu all over again for coaches Dana Altman of Oregon and Travis Ford of Oklahoma State. Ford will be looking for a different result than that one on Mar. 21, 2013, when Altman’s No. 12 seeded Ducks toppled Ford’s No. 5 seeded Cowboys in San Jose, 68-55. The Ducks have an entirely new roster from that game, but stalwarts Le’Bryan Nash and Michael Cobbins remain from the Oklahoma State side looking for revenge. Oklahoma State was a 2-point favorite in the loss.
Oregon comes into Friday’s game having won nine of their past 11 contests, however one of those two losses was a thrashing in the Pac-12 title game at the hands of Arizona. Oklahoma State got into the tournament on the strength of its season through mid-February, as the old adage of “the [selection] committee cares about how you finish” didn’t seem to apply to the Cowboys, considering their 1-6 SU (1-6 ATS) end to the season (capped by a defeat to Oklahoma in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament).
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Oklahoma State owns impressive early conference season victories over Texas (twice), Baylor, and Kansas, as it will need to find that version of the team if it hopes to advance. Neither Oklahoma State nor Oregon boasts any non-conference wins over tournament teams, as Oregon split its season series with UCLA while sweeping Utah and getting swept by Arizona.
Historically, this is the 5th time Oklahoma State has qualified for the NCAA tournament in Travis Ford’s seven seasons. The Cowboys are 1-4 in that span, with their only win coming in Ford’s first NCAA game (2009 as an 8 seed over Tennessee). This is the third straight season that the Ducks are making the NCAA tournament under Dana Altman, as the Ducks are 3-2 in that span. They made it to the round of 16 in 2013, the year they started their run as a No. 12 seed with a victory over the Cowboys. Last season the Ducks won as a No. 7 seed over BYU before falling to No. 2 Wisconsin.
F LeBryan Nash (17.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.0 APG) and F Michael Cobbins (6.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG) have stared out to a sea of green and seen the Ducks celebrate at their expense in the NCAA tournament only two short years ago. Now both seniors look to prevent the possibility of their college careers ending in the same fate. If the Cowboys are to snap out of their recent funk, they’ll look to copy Arizona’s blueprint of how to beat Oregon – by pounding them inside. Nash and Cobbins are the two most physical players on an Oklahoma State roster that unfortunately is as size-challeged as its Oregon counterparts. Neither team boasts a true post presence, but if Nash can recreate his individual efforts in the Big 12 tournament loss to Oklahoma (27 points, 12 rebounds) where he did most of his damage in the paint and at the free throw line (10 FG, 7 FT, 0 3PT) then Oregon probably doesn’t have any one defender who can stop him. Cobbins will have to be the one true deterrent keeping Oregon’s athletic forwards away from put backs on the offensive glass and thundering dunks.
On defense, Oklahoma State is a very solid squad (62.3 PPG, 65th in NCAA) and it makes its mark with takeaways (7.9 SPG, 24th NCAA). The Cowboys’ backcourt of G Anthony Hickey (9.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.5 APG) and G Phil Forte III (15.1 PPG, 39% 3PT, 2.1 threes) combine for just under four steals per game. Regardless whether Oklahoma State finds the shut-down defense that it’s capable of playing (38.4% FG in two games versus Kansas) or not, the Cowboys will have to score more than 47 points (as they did in losing to Oklahoma last week) if they have any shot at winning on Friday. Oregon has a leaky defense, so stepping up falls on Hickey and Forte, who were a combined 2-for-16 in the aforementioned loss, to join Nash more substantially in the scoring column.
Oregon, a team nobody expected in November to be playing in the postseason (given Dana Altman’s sea change of roster turnover amidst internal issues among veterans and recruits alike) is now a favorite to advance in its third straight NCAA tournament, especially given how well they match up with Oklahoma State. The Cowboys main weapon of forcing turnovers and creating havoc with steals seems to be an issue that the Ducks can handle, as Oregon only gets the ball stolen from them 5.6 times per game (96th NCAA) and commits a respectably low 11.8 turnovers per game (113th NCAA). Oregon has some serious issues on defense (70.7 PPG, 285th in NCAA), but thankfully it plays an opponent who is fresh off a 47-point performance.
Oregon’s stellar offense (75.6 PPG, 26th NCAA) is led by star G Joseph Young (20.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.5 3PT), the Pac-12’s leading scorer. Young’s signature shot this season, the long buzzer-beating three to send Utah home in the conference tourney, is just a snapshot of how he can terrorize foes, as he’s just as capable sending an opponent home by being nearly-automatic at the free throw line (92%). Young will have to deal with the pesky defense of Anthony Hickey, but Oregon will always take its chances with Young versus anybody in the country.
Supporting Young is F Elgin Cook (13.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 53%), who has harnessed his otherworldly athleticism into consistency this season. Cook scored double figures in 12 straight games before being held to eight points in the most recent loss to Arizona.
After Cook, Oregon relies on three unique forwards. F Dillon Brooks (11.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) is probably Oregon’s most natural scorer after Young but suffers from a lack of confidence in his scoring in large swings. F Dwayne Benjamin (8.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.1 3PT) is as likely to throw down a lob as he is to be open in the corner for three. Benjamin provides energy off the bench. F Jordan Bell (4.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.6 BPG) isn’t a factor on offense, but is an elite rim protector when not in foul trouble. Bell hasn’t quite been nearly as dominant since serving a one-game suspension in early February for harassment of a police officer.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
