Sportsbook.ag Wednesday NBA Betting Preview
Carrie Stroup here with your Wednesday NBA betting odds for the Knicks vs. Heat and Grizzlies vs. Thunder.
NEW YORK KNICKS (17-19) at MIAMI HEAT (21-13)
Miami -8, Total: 193
Two teams playing solid basketball will meet Wednesday when the Heat host the Knicks.
New York faced Atlanta in a home-and-home set that was capped off with a 107-101 Knicks victory at Philips Arena on Tuesday night. The Knicks won-and-covered in both of those meetings with the Hawks, and have now won-and-covered in three of their past four overall. The team has scored 100 or more points in its past eight victories, so pushing the pace is something that clearly benefits New York.
Miami, meanwhile, has now won-and-covered in three straight after defeating the Pacers 103-100 as a two-point home favorite. The Heat’s opponents have been held under 40% shooting from the field over the course of Miami’s winning streak and the team will be looking to smother the Knicks on Wednesday.
The Heat have dominated this series on the season so far, winning-and-covering in the two meetings between these teams. Their average margin of victory in those games was 18.0 points and they are now 8-1 both SU and ATS versus the Knicks over the past three seasons. The last time New York won a game in American Airlines Arena either SU or ATS was Apr. 2, 2013. The Knicks won that game 102-90 as a three-point road favorite and will be looking to find a way to win in Miami once again on Wednesday.
There are some trends working against each team to look out for in this one. Miami is 1-13 ATS after covering in three of its past four games over the past two seasons, but New York is just 20-34 ATS after one or more consecutive Overs in that span.
The Knicks have won two straight games and SF Carmelo Anthony (21.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.7 APG) is coming off one of his better performances of the season. Anthony had 23 points, 11 boards, seven assists, two blocks and a steal in a win over the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday. It’ll take that type of a complete effort for the Knicks to come away with a victory in Miami. The Heat have a number of solid defenders on the perimeter, so Anthony will need to choose his spots wisely and find his teammates when he gets himself in trouble.
PF Kristaps Porzingis (13.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.9 BPG) had seemed to be hitting a rookie wall in recent weeks, but he averaged 15.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 1.0 BPG in the home-and-home against the Hawks. Porzingis will see a lot of time matched up against Chris Bosh in this one and must hold his own on both ends of the floor. He has been hitting more shots around the basket, though, and that should help open up his game moving forward.
SG Arron Afflalo (14.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG) has also found his stroke for New York. He’s averaging 30.5 PPG over the past two contests and New York will continue to get him some looks in the post moving forward. Offensively, he takes a lot of pressure off of Anthony with his ability to score and the Knicks need him to play well on Wednesday.
One guy who might just be the x-factor for this Knicks team is C Robin Lopez (7.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG). Lopez had a disappointing start to the year for New York, but he is averaging 9.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 2.8 BPG over the past five contests. He has been playing well defensively and will need to do a solid job on the glass against this Heat team on Wednesday.
The Heat have allowed just 94.6 PPG this season (2nd in NBA) and that defense has been the reason this team is third in the Eastern Conference standings. Miami is, however, starting to click on the offensive end, averaging 102.0 PPG over the past three contests. One main reason for the Heat’s offensive improvement is PG Goran Dragic (11.9 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG) becoming more comfortable. Dragic is averaging 15.5 PPG over the past four contests and has shot 50% or better in all of those games. He will need to continue to be aggressive as a scorer and should be in for a big night against a Knicks team that struggles to defend opposing point guards.
One guy who has benefited from Dragic’s aggressiveness is PF Chris Bosh (18.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.3 APG). Bosh had 31 points and 11 boards in a win over the Pacers last game and is averaging 23.2 PPG and 8.4 RPG over the past five contests. He is thriving in the pick-and-pop, shooting 55.2% from the outside over that span. He will need to continue to knock down shots moving forward, especially against a Knicks team that is coming into this game with a lot of confidence.
As always, SG Dwyane Wade (18.5 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is a player to watch in this one. He has torched the Knicks in his career, averaging 25.6 PPG in 34 meetings with the team. He’ll have this one circled and should be a major factor on Wednesday.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (19-17) at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (24-11)
Oklahoma City -7.5, Total:198.5
The Grizzlies will be looking to steal a win against the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
Memphis has been playing much better in recent weeks and enters this game against Oklahoma City after winning three of its past four contests both SU and ATS. The Grizzlies’ most recent game was in Portland on Monday and they came away with a 91-78 victory as 1.5-point road favorites in that one.
The Thunder, meanwhile, lost 116-104 as 7.5-point home favorites against the Kings on Monday. They had won four straight games heading into that one, but they have lost five of their past six ATS.
These two teams have met twice on the season and both of those games were played in Memphis. The Grizzlies won the first meeting 122-114 as 2.5-point home favorites, but the Thunder won the next 125-88 as 2.5-point road favorites. These teams have played each other close over the years, as Oklahoma City is 9-8 SU versus Memphis over the past three seasons and the teams have split victories ATS in those games.
One thing working against the Thunder in this game is the fact that they are 0-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Yet, they do play a Memphis team that is just 1-8 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more versus an opponent this season.
PF Brandan Wright (Knee) is out for the next few weeks for the Grizzlies and SF Kevin Durant (Toe) is a game-time decision for the Thunder, but it would be surprising if he played.
The Grizzlies have maintained their identity as a defensive team, allowing just 98.6 PPG this season (6th in NBA). If they are going to defeat the Thunder on Wednesday then they will need to clamp down defensively and they’ll also need some excellent offensive performances from key players like C Marc Gasol (16.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.2 BPG), PG Mike Conley (15.1 PPG, 5.8 APG, 1.3 SPG) and PF Zach Randolph (13.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG).
Gasol really struggled against Portland last game, finishing 3-for-12 from the field with just seven points and six boards in 30 minutes of action. Gasol will need to be a lot better against the Thunder, as the team relies on him to score in the post and battle on the boards.
Fortunately for Memphis, Zach Randolph turned in his best game of the season against the Blazers on Monday. Randolph finished with 26 points and 18 rebounds in that game and he is making things tough on Dave Joerger with his recent play. Joerger had wanted to primarily play a small-ball lineup moving forward this season, but Randolph regaining his scoring touch is going to force them to go big a bit more often.
As for Conley, the point guard will need to be ready to play on Wednesday. He has a matchup with Russell Westbrook in this game and if he plays a poor game then there is really no chance that Memphis comes away with this road win.
The Thunder have found their stride and are currently near the top of the league in two important categories, scoring (108.5 PPG, 2nd in NBA) and rebounding (47.4 RPG, 3rd in NBA).
One major cause for Oklahoma City’s play recently is PG Russell Westbrook (25.3 PPG, 9.5 APG, 6.8 RPG, 2.5 SPG), who is as dynamic of a scorer at the point guard position as there is in this league. Westbrook is averaging 26.5 PPG and 15.0 APG in two meetings with the Grizzlies this season. Mike Conley is no match for him athletically and he should be able to dominate the Memphis point guard once again on Wednesday. Westbrook did struggle against the Kings in Monday’s loss without Kevin Durant (26.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 BPG). He went 6-for-23 from the field and 2-for-9 from the outside, but he did affect the game in other ways. He dished out 15 assists and grabbed eight boards, but he will need to be better as a scorer without Durant.
PF Serge Ibaka (13.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.5 BPG) will also be counted on to score more if Durant is out. He did just that against the Kings on Monday, scoring 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting from the field. Ibaka has also been a monster defensively, blocking 4.5 shots per game over the past two contests. If he can do a good job of protecting the rim then the Thunder should be able to win this one at home.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
