Trailblazers vs. Spurs Betting Line – November 16
Carrie Stroup here with your Trailblazers vs. Spurs betting line for Monday night. Sportsbook.ag Line: San Antonio -12.5, Total: 202.5
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (4-7) at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (7-2)
For the second time in six days, LaMarcus Aldridge gets to face his old team when the red-hot Spurs entertain the slumping Blazers.
Portland (5-6 ATS) enters Monday with five straight losses where it has allowed more than 100 points each time. This includes dropping the first two games on its current four-game road trip, 101-100 at Memphis on Friday and 106-94 at Charlotte on Sunday. San Antonio (6-3 ATS) is rolling with four straight victories by an average of 14.8 PPG, but struggled shooting the basketball (38.8% FG) versus Philadelphia to open a three-game homestand on Saturday.
One of these wins was an impressive 113-101 road victory over the Blazers last Wednesday during the LaMarcus Aldridge homecoming when the Spurs out-shot their opponent 56% FG to 44% FG. That gives San Antonio a 48-33 SU advantage in this series since 1996, but the ATS series is nearly even with Portland at 39-41 ATS. The Spurs are 5-2 (SU and ATS) when hosting in this series over the previous two seasons, but one of those Blazers road wins came 11 months ago by a 129-119 score.
There are plenty of betting trends to help with wagers for this matchup, as Portland is 25-12 ATS in November games over the past three seasons, and double-digit favorites who are good defensively (88-92 PPG allowed) playing against a horrible defense (102+ PPG allowed) are just 10-30 ATS since 1996 after a combined score of 175 points or less. But San Antonio is 17-6 ATS versus terrible defensive teams (103+ PPG allowed) in the past two seasons and its Monday opponent is 5-22 ATS after 2+ straight road losses under head coach Terry Stotts.
The only anticipated absence in this game is Blazers PF Meyers Leonard, who is out indefinitely with an injured shoulder. Portland star PG Damian Lillard (thumb) and two key Spurs players -- SF Kawhi Leonard (respiratory) and FG Manu Ginobili (abdominal) -- have all been upgraded to probable for Monday.
Portland is scoring a solid 102.3 PPG (11th in NBA) this season including healthy percentages from the floor (45.8% FG, 7th in NBA) and also from long range (36.2% threes, also 7th in league). The team does a nice job on the glass (+1.5 RPG, 12th in NBA), but turnovers have hurt (14.3 TOPG, 8th-most in league) and the passing hasn't been great either at 20.4 APG (22nd in NBA).
The bulk of the scoring for this team is done by the starting backcourt of PG Damian Lillard (25.1 PPG, 39% threes, 7.2 APG, 1.2 SPG) and SG C.J. McCollum (20.9 PPG, 40% threes, 3.0 APG). Lillard exploded against San Antonio on Wednesday for 22 points (5-of-8 threes), nine assists and six rebounds, while McCollum added 21 points on 9-of-21 FG, but turned the ball over four times.
With PF Meyers Leonard (8.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) out of action, SF Al-Farouq Aminu (12.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and C Mason Plumlee (9.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG) will have to contribute more than the pedestrian 20 points and 12 rebounds in a combined 63 minutes in last week's loss to the Spurs.
Defensively, the Blazers are allowing 103.8 PPG (21st in NBA) on 45.5% FG (24th in league), but have challenged long-range shooters by giving up only 32.3% threes (9th in NBA). However, they allowed the Spurs to knock down 7-of-15 threes in last Wednesday's loss, and must do a better job to stay in this game. Portland also needs to force more turnovers with a league-low 5.7 steals per game this year.
San Antonio has the same 102.3 PPG (10th in league) as its Monday opponent, but is shooting an NBA-best 48.5% FG and a serviceable 34.3% threes (15th in league). This team has not protected the basketball well with 14.9 turnovers per game (17th in NBA), but remains very unselfish with a hefty 25.3 APG (3rd in league).
This offense also has great balance with five players averaging at least 11.0 PPG. SF Kawhi Leonard (team-high 21.9 PPG plus 7.5 RPG and 1.9 SPG) has scored at least 16 points in every game this season, but he could be limited on Monday after sitting out Saturday's game with an upper respiratory infection.
PF LaMarcus Aldridge (16.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG) is coming off a huge 17-point, 19-rebound performance on Saturday, which followed his strong 23 points (9-of-18 FG) and six boards in his return to Portland last week.
San Antonio is also getting great production from its veteran trio of PF Tim Duncan (11.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.4 BPG), PG Tony Parker (11.8 PPG, 3.4 APG) and SG Manu Ginobili (11.0 PPG, 3.8 APG), who are all shooting at least 50% from the floor this season. In Wednesday's win over the Blazers, the trio combined for 37 points on 59% FG (16-of-27) with 12 rebounds, 10 assists and just one turnover.
The Spurs defense has been outstanding this season in allowing 91.8 PPG (2nd in NBA) on just 42.1% FG (4th in league) and 33.0% threes (11th in NBA). Since giving up 112 points in a season-opening loss at Oklahoma City, none of the past eight opponents have scored more than 102 points.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
