Where to Bet the Heat vs. Thunder Online – February 20
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MIAMI HEAT (38-14) at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (43-12)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oklahoma City -2.5 & 208
The Heat wrap up their six-game road trip on Thursday evening when they look for payback against a Thunder team that dismantled them last month, and will get their star PG Russell Westbrook back on the court.
Westbrook has missed 27 games since having a knee operation late December, but he is expected to suit up on Thursday night. Miami has won nine of its past 11 games (5-5-1 ATS) thanks to an offense has been clicking over that span with 104.9 PPG on 52.1% FG and 35.2% threes, making at least half of its shots in eight of those 11 contests. It was a poor defensive showing by the Heat when they hosted Oklahoma City on Jan. 29, allowing their opponent to score 112 points on 51.2% FG and a whopping 16-of-27 threes (59.3%). This win in South Beach was part of the Thunder's impressive 15-2 SU mark (12-5 ATS) in their past 17 games where they have averaged 105.5 PPG on 50.3% FG and 39.2% threes. Before that defeat, Miami had beaten Oklahoma City six straight times (SU and ATS) by an average of 7.8 PPG, a streak that began with four consecutive victories in the 2012 NBA Finals. The Heat are also 7-3 (SU and ATS) in their past 10 road games in this series, and have been a quality road team this season at 18-10 SU (15-12-1 ATS), including 4-1 SU (3-1-1 ATS) on their current road trip. But the Thunder are 23-3 SU at home with a strong 15-11 ATS mark. Both teams have plenty of positive trends for this matchup, including Miami going 15-4 ATS in February road games in the past three seasons and 19-8 ATS when revenging a same-season loss versus an opponent in the past two seasons. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is 15-7 ATS after a game where it failed to cover this season and is also 46-27 ATS after scoring 105+ points over the past two seasons. With Westbrook listed as probable, there are no significant injuries for this contest.
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Miami continues to play strong on both ends of the court, scoring 104.4 PPG (7th in NBA) on a league-best 50.9% FG and a strong 37.0% threes (10th in NBA). This team loves to share the ball with 23.5 APG (5th in league), but remains an awful rebounding team with an NBA-worst 36.6 RPG and the league's third-worst rebounding margin (minus-3.9 RPG). On defense, the Heat allow just 99.2 PPG (11th in league) despite subpar shooting numbers of 45.9% FG allowed (11th-worst in NBA) and 37.0% threes (6th-worst in league). Miami is coming off an impressive 117-106 road victory over the Mavericks on Tuesday in which they easily covered a 2.5-point spread by outshooting its opponent 57% to 40% from the floor. SF LeBron James (26.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 6.5 APG) was unstoppable in that contest, finishing with 42 points (16-of-23 FG), nine rebounds and six assists. James had 34 points in the loss to the Thunder in January, but he also had just three assists and three rebounds. He will need to make an impact in every area of the floor in order to pick up a win against this red-hot Thunder team. PF Chris Bosh (16.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG) had 22 points (8-of-12 FG) and five rebounds in the win over Dallas, giving him a strong 18.0 PPG and 6.6 RPG on this road trip. Bosh had 18 points and nine rebounds in the loss to Oklahoma City in their last meeting, but wasn’t much of a presence defensively as he really struggled to guard Serge Ibaka. SG Dwyane Wade (18.6 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.7 RPG) will really need to step his game up if the Heat are going to get a win over the Thunder. With Russell Westbrook back for Oklahoma City, Wade is going to have to be James’ right-hand man and help him to match the production of Durant and Westbrook. After missing two games with a foot injury, Wade was able to play 34 minutes on Tuesday night, but scored a mere 13 points and seven assists in the win over Dallas. Wade was held to 15 points and two assists in 32 minutes versus the Thunder last month.
The Thunder have the best record in the NBA because they are strong in all facets of the game. On offense, they average 105.0 PPG (5th in NBA) on 47.5% FG (3rd in league) and 35.8% threes (14th in NBA), and on defense, they allow only 97.6 PPG (6th in league) on 43.0% FG (2nd in NBA) and 34.1% threes (4th in league) helped in big part by their 6.2 BPG (2nd in NBA). Oklahoma City also leads the league in rebounding margin (+4.9 RPG) and rank seventh in turnover differential (+0.9 TOPG) despite missing their starting point guard for half the season. PG Russell Westbrook (21.3 PPG, 7.0 APG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 SPG) has strong numbers against the Heat since the 2010-11 season (21.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 5.2 RPG), but has shot a horrible 31% FG (4-of-15 threes) during that timeframe. It's not clear how many minutes Westbrook will log on Thursday, meaning backup PG Reggie Jackson (13.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.7 RPG) will still have a significant role for his team. Jackson has been excellent as the lead point guard for the Thunder, and is averaging 16.8 PPG and 5.4 APG over the past five contests. PF Serge Ibaka (15.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.6 BPG) has been excellent all season for Oklahoma City, and played well in last month's meeting between these teams with 22 points (10-of-20 FG), eight rebounds and one block in 33 minutes of play. Even with Westbrook back on the court, SF Kevin Durant (31.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 5.5 APG) must continue to play at an MVP-level for the Thunder. In the month of February, Durant is averaging 33.1 PPG (49% FG), 8.3 RPG and 7.4 APG, but he also has 5.3 TOPG during that span. He got the best of LeBron James last time these teams met, as he finished with 33 points (12-of-23 FG, 4-of-9 threes), seven rebounds and five assists.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter