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SAN ANTONIO SPURS (60-18) at DALLAS MAVERICKS (48-31)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -2 & 201
The Mavericks look for their fifth straight victory when they host the Western Conference leading Spurs on Thursday evening.
San Antonio is coming off a shocking 110-91 road loss to the Timberwolves and it has now lost two of its past three games (both on the road) since ending a 19-game win streak. The Spurs are still playing with a purpose despite their excellent record this late in the season as they have yet to clinch the Western Conference’s top seed, sitting three games ahead of Oklahoma City. The Mavericks, on the other hand, are still fighting for their playoff lives and have won their past four games to remain in seventh place, one game behind Golden State for sixth, but just one-half game ahead of eight-place Phoenix and 1.5 games up on ninth-place Memphis. Dallas’ defense has really stepped it up as of late, allowing just 94.0 PPG (43% FG, 23% threes) over the win streak, with all four games coming on the road. This season, however, the Spurs are 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) when playing against the Mavericks, which increases their record to 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) in this series over the past three seasons, including 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) in Dallas. San Antonio is also 11-2 ATS on the road this season after failing to cover in two of its previous three games. The Mavs, however, are 31-15 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 over the past two seasons. PG Tony Parker (back) and SG Manu Ginobili (calf) are both listed as doubtful for this game, which will give the Mavericks a major advantage on paper heading into this game. Dallas SF Shawn Marion (foot) has been upgraded to probable for Thursday's showdown.
The Spurs are coming off a bad loss to the Timberwolves in which PG Tony Parker (16.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) sat out with an injured back. Parker is expected to miss this game too, meaning PG Cory Joseph (5.0 PPG, 1.7 APG) should be in line to start in Parker's place. Joseph had 13 points and three steals in the loss to Minnesota and will need to use his speed to disrupt Jose Calderon and the Mavericks. PF Tim Duncan (15.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) is going to be relied on heavily in this game. Matched up with Dirk Nowitzki, Duncan must snap out of his recent slump. Over the past five games, Duncan is averaging just 12.8 PPG (42% FG) and 6.6 RPG. PG Patty Mills (10.0 PPG) could be another source of offense for the Spurs with some of their stars expected to miss this game. Mills had just eight points in the loss to the Wolves, but he is capable of exploding on any given night, as evidenced by his 21 points and six rebounds against the Thunder on April 3. SF Kawhi Leonard (12.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG) is averaging 15.6 PPG and 5.2 RPG over his past five contests and will need to shoulder some of the scoring load if the Spurs are going to pick up a big win in Dallas on Thursday.
The Mavericks have gotten hot at the right time, winning four straight games in the midst of a race for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. PF Dirk Nowitzki (21.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) has been superb recently for Dallas, averaging 24.4 PPG and 7.6 RPG over the past five contests. Nowitzki, who just moved into the Top 10 all-time for NBA career scoring, is averaging 18.3 PPG and 5.7 RPG against the Spurs this season. He should fare better on Thursday with Tim Duncan looking rather tired as of late. SG Monta Ellis (18.7 PPG) is averaging 19.5 PPG over his past two contests and is going to need to take advantage of the depleted backcourt of the Spurs. If Ellis is able to attack the rim and make things happen, then the Mavericks will have a much better chance of picking up their first victory over the Spurs this season. Dallas could also use a big game out of PG Jose Calderon (11.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) in this one. Going up against the inexperienced backups of the Spurs, Calderon will need to use his craftiness to make plays for his teammates and to free up his own shot.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
