Zags vs. Gaels Betting Odds January 21
Carrie Stroup here with your Zags vs. Gaels betting odds for Thursday night’s College Hoops. St Mary's -5, Total: 138
GONZAGA BULLDOGS (14-4) at ST MARYS GAELS (15-2)
The penultimate rivalry in the WCC takes center stage on Thursday night as Gonzaga travels to St. Mary’s with the winner assuming sole possession of first place in the conference.
While Gonzaga has owned this series in recent memory (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS since 2012; eight straight wins) the Bulldogs look as vulnerable as they’ve been in a long while. A home loss to BYU (for the second time in two seasons) has dropped coach Mark Few’s club out of their familiar perch in the top 25. Gonzaga did rebound to obliterate San Diego, 88-52 (Gonzaga -20) at home on Saturday, but the matchup with the ultra-efficient and even-keeled Gaels on Thursday night looms, with the Gaels arguably as the best team in the conference right now.
At 15-2 (12-2 ATS) and 13-0 SU (9-1 ATS) at home, coach Randy Bennett’s St. Mary’s club has won 9 of its past 10 games. Furthermore, the Gaels last game, a 78-62 win over Pacific at home (St. Mary’s -19.5) was a week ago. Given the six day rest to prepare for their arch-rivals at home, expect the crowd at Moraga to be in an absolute frenzy and for the nation’s best three point shooting team (46% 3PT, 1st NCAA) to be ready to prevent Gonzaga from taking their ninth straight win in this series.
Historically, while both clubs are very solid offensively, the total has gone UNDER in each of the last seven games between the Gaels and Bulldogs. Not only has Gonzaga won the last eight games in this rivalry, they’ve also covered and outshot St. Mary’s (FG%) in seven straight. Gonzaga is 14-6 SU (11-9 ATS) away from home against St. Mary’s since 1998. The last time the Bulldogs were underdogs to the Gaels away from home, they hammered St. Mary’s in Moraga to the tune of 75-47 in Mar. 2014.
The most recent win non-withstanding, WCC play has not been a walk in the park for Gonzaga this season. At 2-4 ATS in conference play, the Bulldogs have found many challengers this season, be that due to a shortened rotation due to injury (F Przemek Karnowski is out for the season), having only two consistent offensive weapons, or having to rely on a new backcourt for the first time in four seasons, there’s no doubt that this is a team that isn’t going to bulldoze through conference play as they have in the past.
To win, coach Few’s team needs All-American type play out of his two top players who, frankly, are doing everything they can for this club. F Kyle Wiltjer (22.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 49.5 % FG) is one of the toughest covers in the country. His ability to move without the ball to get himself open, use his height for mid-range jumpers and post touches, and be effective from three (44% 3PT) while hitting for 87.5% FT makes him college basketball’s answer to Dirk Nowitzki. Wiltjer has been on another planet, production-wise, since the calendar flipped to 2016, as he’s averaging an absurd 30.5 PPG over the past four games (57% FG, 54% FT).
Wiltjer’s frontcourt partner, F Domantas Sabonis (17.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 64% FG) makes for the other half of this dynamic duo. Sabonis had been unstoppable until running up against BYU in Gonzaga’s first conference loss last week, as it seems the only thing that can stop Arvydas’ son from putting up monstrous double-doubles is foul issues.
G Josh Perkins (9.8 PPG) is the only other real offensive threat for Gonzaga, as he’s put up double-figures in four of his last five games.
The Bulldogs will need to continue getting back to their old ways on defense, as they did in holding San Diego to 55 points. Against the best three point shooting team in the country, Gonzaga’s 29.4% 3PT allowed defense (13th NCAA) will really get a chance to see how good it is.
Surprise, surprise, coach Randy Bennett’s Gaels are led by some outstanding hidden gems from, you guessed it, Australia. Following in the footsteps of former Gaels greats like Matthew Dellavadova, G Emmett Naar (13.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 59% 3PT) and F Dane Pineau (11.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 62% FG) both hail from the land down under. That said, the player surging right now for the Gaels is another Aussie, F Jock Landale (10.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG).
Landale, a barely-used freshman a season ago, is thriving with double-figure scoring in his last five games (15.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) in that span. He’ll be sorely needed to help Pineau put pressure on Sabonis and Wiltjer.
The Gaels three point resume is no joke, as they boast five players averaging more than one triple per game. F Calvin Hermanson (10.6 PPG, 41% 3PT, 2.3 3PM) leads the team in threes made.
Running the show is former Boston College transfer G Joe Rahon (9.5 PPG, 6.8 APG). While Rahon isn’t a knock-down shooter that many of his teammates are, he has shown a penchant for coming up big against good competition (24 points in a non-conference win versus Stanford earlier this season). Rahon has seven straight games of 6+ assists and only 9 total turnovers in that same span.
The offense all really comes back to the 6’1” Naar, though, as the sophomore who only averaged 6 points per game last season regained the golden touch that had left him for a five game span in late December and early January. Naar hit for 21 points (4-4 3PT) in the most recent win over Pacific, and Bennett will have to hope that game gives him the confidence to shoot up to his capabilities again on Thursday night.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
