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The people who set probabilities for a living are not painting a pretty picture for financial markets.
This morning, BetOnline.ag re-opened EOW/EOM/EOY prices for the DOW Jones and select cryptocurrencies.
The odds suggest the Dow only has around a 30% chance at closing higher than 40k this week, but they also suggest that the Dow won't dip below 30k at any point during April.
The crypto market has taken a beating as well, and the EOY projections for all three coins below are listed under where they are currently trading (at time of this writing).
Finally, there's a prop asking whether or not any member of President Trump's cabinet will be fired or will resign due to the tariffs and market tanks. The "No" is a heavy favorite.
Will the Dow Jones close at 40,000+ at market close on April 11?
Yes 3/2 (+150)
No 1/2 (-200)
(Odds imply a 67% probability Dow will not close higher than 40k)
Will the Dow Jones close below 30,000 at market close any time in April?
Yes 3/2 (+150)
No 1/2 (-200)
(Odds imply a 67% probability Dow will not close lower than 30k)
Bitcoin Price at End of 2025
Over/Under 78k dollars
Ripple Price at End of 2025
Over/Under 170 cents
Ethereum Price at End of 2025
Over/Under 1500 dollars
Will any Trump Cabinet member leave post due to tariffs/markets?
Yes 4/1 (+400)
No 1/8 (-800)
