Betting Market Asks: Davos World Economic Forum Matter?

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Jan/28/2009
Davos World Economic Forum

As business and political moguls hobnob at the five-day Davos junket we will measure whether many of those who presided over blunders in business and policy can credibly lead us in 'Shaping the Post-Crisis World' - the theme for the meeting.

To measure the immediate impact of dozens of presentations and workshops by 2,500 business and 42 political leaders we have constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index.

Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced at 50.0 at the official opening of the meeting is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions.

A higher post meeting index means our markets predict a more disastrous 2009 than before. A lower post-meeting index means our markets predict global leaders have reduced the probability that 2009 will be the disaster we previously thought.

We hope the global leaders convince our traders that 2009 will not be as bad as previously thought. We hope to see the index react to the keynote addresses.

You can see the updated World Crisis Index at Intrade

The 8 "World Crisis" Markets

Level

Germany Recession in 09

92.0

Japan Recession in 09

88.5

US -10% Depression in 09

20.0

Russian Debt Default in 09

39.0

China Growth Below 7.5% Q4 08

62.0

Unemployment in the US above 9% Q4 09

44.5

New Dow low in 09 from Nov 08 low.

62.7

Airstrike against Iran by US and/or Israel by end 09

23.7

Total (divided by 8.648 to get 50.0)

432.4

Index Value as at 2:00pm GMT, 28 Jan 2009

50.0

Business/Financial News

Can Cryptocurrency Eventually Replace Fiat Money?

There has been growing interest in cryptocurrencies in the recent past, which has made most people suggest that banks will become redundant soon. The idea behind Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency movement is to decentralize banking and eliminate the blocks that come with centralized management.

Port Strike Ends: Bettors Lose

The union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports reached a deal Thursday to suspend a three-day strike until Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract.

Bitcoin Prices Plunge on Middle East Tensions

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and related stocks are experiencing a sharp decline in prices following Iran's attack on Israel Tuesday evening. This escalation of tensions in the Middle East has pushed the cryptocurrency market into the red. 

Syndicate