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Following Wednesday morning's report that the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, chances of a recession have increased.
The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag significantly shifted their probability of a recession in 2025 after the Commerce Department's report.
American businesses are cancelling orders from China, postponing expansion plans and hunkering down to see what trade policy surprises President Donald Trump plans to spring on them next.
The president’s massive and unpredictable taxes on imports seem likely to mean emptier shelves and higher prices for American shoppers, perhaps within weeks.
And the higher costs and paralyzing uncertainty could exact an economic toll: U.S. consumers are in the biggest funk since COVID-19 hit five years ago, and economists say recession risks are climbing.
An early sign of the damage emerged with the negative news Wednesday when the Commerce Department released its first look at first-quarter economic growth, reporting on the 0.3% shrinkage.
Jay Foreman, CEO of toymaker Basic Fun, told the Associated Press he paused shipments of Tonka trucks, Care Bears and other toys from China after Trump’s tariff plan was announced in early April. Now, he’s hoping to get by for a few months on inventory he’s stockpiled.
“Consumers will find Basic Fun toys in stores for a month or two but very quickly we will be out of stock and stock product will disappear from store shelves, ” he said.
Here are the changes during the past week:
Will there be a recession in 2025? (Odds on April 23)
Yes -125
No -105
Will there be a recession in 2025? (Odds on April 27)
Yes -150
No +120
Will there be a recession in 2025? (Odds on April 30)
Yes -500
No +300
The most recent odds equate to an implied probability of 83.3%.
Additionally, President Trump's approval rate odds have dipped to the lowest projection since he was elected.
Trump Approval Rating on June 1, 2025
Over/Under 40.5%
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