Odds Good for Telegram, Its Founder, According to Betting Markets

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Published on :

27 August, 2024

The betting markets suggest Telegram founder Pavel Durov will be released by October following his reported arrest in France over the weekend.

Durov is accused of allowing his platform to be used for illicit activity such as drug trafficking and the distribution of child sexual abuse images.

Durov, who was born in Russia, spent much of his childhood in Italy and is a citizen of France, Russia, the Caribbean island nation of St. Kitts and Nevis and the United Arab Emirates. He was taken into custody at Paris-Le Bourget Airport in France on Saturday after landing from Azerbaijan.

In a statement posted to its platform, Telegram said it abides by EU laws and its content moderation is “within industry standards and constantly improving.” Durov, the company added, “has nothing to hide and travels frequently in Europe.”

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Polymarket released a betting market for Durov's release by October with 77% of gamblers believing he will be.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pavel Durov is released from custody by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Durov is released from custody by the resolution date but remains in house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Only 7% of those betting believe that Telegram will be banned in France before October.