Bet the Number of Tesla Deliveries in 4th Quarter 2024

After a strong fourth quarter in 2023, Tesla started off 2024 with a quarter that Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called a 'nightmare.' The company delivered only 386,810 electric vehicles, which was far below Wall Street estimates.

Analysts from Barclays and Wedbush, as well as Barclays analyst Dan Levy, expected Tesla to deliveries to exceed 470,000 units in Q3. This estimate was significantly above the consensus forecast of approximately 461,000 vehicles.

On Wednesday, Tesla released the following numbers:

Total deliveries Q3 2024: 462,890

Total production Q3 2024: 469,796

The betting market at Kalshi believes 462,000 or more Teslas will be delivered in the 4th quarter, with 65% backing. 470,000 or more was the next most likely outcome, seeing 64% of the backing. 

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According to LSEG, analysts on average were expecting deliveries of 469,828 vehicles. An independent researcher widely followed by Tesla fans who publishes as “Troy Teslike” predicted the EV maker would report deliveries of 472,000 in the quarter.

GM this week reported a roughly 60% increase in EV sales for the third quarter from a year earlier but with a much smaller market share in this sector when compared to Tesla.  GM reported just 32,100 units sold in the latest period, accounting for 4.9% of the company’s total sales.

Tesla Betting Market Full Rules

Scope: These rules shall apply to this contract.
Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is releases from Tesla, Inc. Revisions to the
Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
Instructions: The Underlying can be found here. The most recent vehicle production &
deliveries results were released in early 2024 here. These instructions on how to access the
Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and
Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.
Source Agency: The Source Agency is Tesla.
Type: The type of Contract is an Event Contract.
Issuance: The Contract will be issued on a quarterly basis.
<count>: Kalshi may list iterations of the Contract with <count> levels that fall within an
inclusive range between 0 and 100,000,000 at consecutive increments of <1>. Due to the
potential for variability in the Underlying, the Exchange may modify <count> levels in response
to suggestions by Members.
<quarter>: <quarter> refers to a fiscal quarter specified by Kalshi. Kalshi may list iterations of
the Contract corresponding to different statistical periods of <date>.
Payout Criterion: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that
total delivered in <quarter> are above <count>.
Minimum Tick: The Minimum Tick size for the referred Contract shall be $0.01.
Position Limit: The Position Limit for the $1 referred Contract shall be $25,000 per Member.
Last Trading Date: The Last Trading Date of the Contract will be the last day of <quarter>.
Settlement Date: The Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the
Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1.
Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the first 10:00 AM ET following
the release of data for <quarter> or one quarter after <quarter>.
Expiration time: The Expiration time of the Contract shall be 10:00 AM ET.
Settlement Value: The Settlement Value for this Contract is $1.00.
Expiration Value: The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the
Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.
Contingencies: Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market
Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.