US Recession Betting Odds Give 60% Chance for 2025
Bettors on prediction-market startup Kalshi are assessing the chances of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year at 70%.
That number was closer to 60% at the prediction market Polymarket. Back in February, the number was in the lower 20's. It wasn't until April 1 that the chances began leaping over the 40% mark.
Experts in the financial sector have helped boost the betting markets as US President Donald Trump's tariff implementations have caused an upheaval in the stock market.
Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan CEO): Estimated a 50% chance of a U.S. recession.
“I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome,” Dimon said on Fox Business’ “Mornings With Maria” show this week.
“Markets aren’t always right, but sometimes they are right,” Dimon said. “I think this time they are right because they’re just pricing uncertainty [at] the macro level and uncertainty [at] the micro level, at the actual company level, and then how it affects consumer sentiment. It’s hard to tell.”
Larry Fink (BlackRock CEO): Warned that the U.S. might already be in a recession, describing the recent tariffs as "beyond anything I could have imagined."
Goldman Sachs: Raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 45% from 35%, marking the second increase in a week, due to escalating trade tensions and market volatility.
For Polymarket, this market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
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