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The line on the first round of the College Football Playoffs game between Indiana and Notre Dame comes in at between Irish -7 and -7 with Sagarin giving us a number dead on at 7.72.
Comparables
We simply look for a line that is on the money when moving between the 7 and 7.5. For which we found only one recent matching game.
- West Virginia +7/+7.5 Pittsburgh (dog mostly covers with 7-point loss) Pitt 7.19 On the Money - Underdog covers.
Key Trends and Notes
- Notre Dame has won six straight in the series, but the two schools have met only once since 1958.
- Ten of Indiana’s 11 victories this season have come by 14 or more points.
- When teams have covered in eight straight games, there is an "overdue" factor in place and we really need to consider that said team is due for a failed cover. That's the case with Notre Dame riding an eight-game winning streak Against The Spread.
- Ty Son Lawton (11) and Justice Ellison (10) are Indiana’s first RB duo to each post 10 or more TD runs in the same season.
- Riley Leonard is one of 10 FBS quarterbacks to throw for 1,900 yards and rush for 650. He has 33 career TD runs. ... This will be Notre Dame’s first home game not telecast by NBC since 1990.
What’s at Stake?
The simple answer is win and advance to the Sugar Bowl against second-seeded Georgia (No. 2 AP). But these two schools also have something to prove. The Fighting Irish have won 10 straight since their loss to Northern Illinois, essentially making each successive contest a playoff game. If they win four more, they’ll have their first national championship since 1988, the school’s longest drought since claiming its first title in 1924. Playoff newcomer Indiana, which has its first 11-win season in school history, wants to prove wrong the critics who complained about its schedule while showing it belongs on college football’s big stage.
Key Matchup
Indiana’s run defense vs. Notre Dame’s ground game. The Irish have relied heavily on their running game all season and why not? RBs Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price are a strong one-two punch and Riley Leonard is one of the nation’s top running quarterbacks. This week, though, they face the FBS’ top run defense. The Hoosiers allow just 70.8 yards per game and are second nationally in yards allowed per carry (2.46). Whichever team wins this matchup likely will have at least one more game.
Players to Watch
Indiana: QB Kurtis Rourke. The second-team All-Big Ten selection led the FBS in passing efficiency (181.38) and finished ninth in the Heisman Trophy race. He had one poor game, at then-No. 2 Ohio State. The Buckeyes harassed Rourke constantly and he finished the day 8 of 18 for 68 yards in a 38-15 loss. If Notre Dame replicates that kind of pressure, it could be another long day for Rourke and the Hoosiers.
Notre Dame: DT Howard Cross III. The preseason All-American is expected to return Friday after missing the final three regular-season games with a high ankle sprain. He hasn’t played in a game since Nov. 9. Will he be fresh? Will he be rusty? Time will tell. But Notre Dame is betting he can anchor the front seven and slow down the highest-scoring team (43.3 points) in the playoffs.
Free Pick
We will be on Indiana +7.5 for this game. Some books may have the line at +7 but we would encourage finding the number at Hoosiers +7.5.
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