TCU vs. Baylor Betting Preview November 2

TCU comes into their Week 10 game against Baylor with a 5-3 record as the Bears sit at the .500 mark.

Line Analysis and Action

• Opening Line - Baylor opened at -2.5
• Line Trend - The line has sat on the 3 all week.
• Sagarin Number -  Sagarin gives us a number of 5.33, which suggests an underlay of close to three points. 
• Action - Action was around 75% on the dog, Texas Christian.

Historic Comparables

• NA

Winners and Whiners Prediction

Winners and Whiners is backing Baylor here.

"Both of these teams have taken a step back in recent years. They are no longer battling for National Title consideration, but instead are in the middle of the pack in the Big 12. With that said, Baylor is playing better football as of late, and will pick up their second straight home win in this matchup. They both played Texas Tech over the past two weeks, TCU needed a miracle 17-point comeback to win by one point, while Baylor just took care of business on the road, winning a 59-35 blowout over the Red Raiders. TCU is too dependent on the pass to find success in close games, the Horned Frogs rank only 119th in rushing yards per game, out of 129 teams in the FBS. This will allow Baylor to consistently drop into pass coverage, and shut down this predictable offense. The Bears have adjusted well to their new quarterback, as Sawyer Robertson has taken over the starting spot and has a 17-4 TD-INT ratio since becoming QB1. Baylor just won their first conference home game since 2022, winning is contagious, and they will beat TCU here while covering the number."

What's at Stake?

TCU is trying to stay on the fringe of the race for the Big 12 championship game after victories at Utah and at home over Texas Tech. Baylor is seeking its first three-game winning streak since 2022. At that point two years ago, the Bears were 18-5 under coach Dave Aranda. A four-game losing streak to finish that season started a 5-17 slide that jeopardized Aranda’s job. The Bears blew out Texas Tech two weeks ago to end an eight-game Big 12 skid and last week’s victory over Oklahoma State ended an eight-game home skid in conference play. Aranda is 0-4 against TCU, and the Horned Frogs have won eight of the past nine in the series.

Key Matchup

Aranda vs. TCU offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. The Baylor coach took over defensive play-calling after going 3-9 last season. Briles is in his second season as the play-caller for coach Sonny Dykes. He had the same role at Baylor under his dad, Art Briles, when the elder Briles was fired in the wake of a scandal involving the program’s handling of sexual assault allegations. During the TCU game, Baylor is honoring the 2013 and 2014 Big 12 championship teams coached by Art Briles.

Player to Watch

TCU: QB Josh Hoover threw for three touchdowns but had three turnovers against Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs have had 16 turnovers (eight fumbles, eight interceptions) that have led to 58 points for opponents in their last four games.

Baylor: Sophomore RB Dawson Pendergrass had his first career 100-yard game with 142 yards on just six carries against Oklahoma State. His 55-yard touchdown came soon after the Cowboys pulled within 31-28 with five minutes remaining.