California is Now a +10.5 Home Dog vs. Miami, Wrong Team Favored in Michigan-Washington Rematch?

• California is now a +10.5 home dog hosting Miami.
• Sagarin suggests wrong team favored in Michigan-Washington game.
• Kansas vs. Arizona State, Texas Tech vs. Arizona betting previews.

College Football

California is Now a +10.5 Home Dog vs. Miami

No. 8 ranked Miami (5-0) comes to California (3-1).

The line on this game opened Hurricanes -11.5 and has since dropped a point.

Sagarin has Miami -7.5, so there is definitely a nice sized overlay here and these have been favorable towards the dog with our two-year-old model.  The sampling is small.  As such, we'll want to review a few other variables.

Here is what Winners and Whiners has to say and why they like Cal in this one:

"Cal could very well be 4-0 coming into this game, save for poor execution down the stretch against Florida State on the road. This game has several things in the Golden Bears' favor heading into Saturday night. The Hurricanes had to travel cross country for this encounter, the game time is a late start time for an East Coast team, and the Bears' secondary is opportunistic with a nation-leading ten interceptions. Miami quarterback Ward is coming off a 2-interception game and has to do battle with the nation's 16th-ranked defense. Miami's defense will keep them in the game, particularly with their ability to get to the quarterback. Cal needs to win through the air, but they'll face a formidable pass rush that limits the time to throw. I like the Hurricanes to win this game, but this will not be a runaway. Virginia Tech showed that the Hurricanes can be vulnerable, particularly on the defensive end, and was able to confuse Ward into mistakes. Double-digit points is just too much to give up here in what should be an electric environment at night at Cal on Saturday. Take Cal with the points."

• How the Calgorithm Has Become CFB's Newest Obsession
• Miami Defensive Line Should Feast Versus California Offensive Line

College Football

Michigan vs. Washington Huskies -1.5

It’s a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff championship game where the Wolverines prevailed, but now it’s an early-season Big Ten matchup. Both teams only vaguely look like the squads that played for the title last season, although Michigan is far closer to the same form after consecutive home wins over USC and Minnesota. The Huskies have dropped two of their last three, including last week’s 21-18 loss at Rutgers where Washington outgained the Scarlet Knights 521-299 but still found a way to lose.

The line has been Washington -3 to -1.5.  Sagarin suggests the wrong team is favored here as they have Michigan -2.  That is big for the dog with our model.

• Michigan Football Making History As Top 10 Underdog On Saturday
• Michigan vs. Washington: Behind Enemy Lines Breaks Down CFP Rematch Between Wolverines & Huskies

College Football

Kansas @ Arizona State

Arizona State has hovered between -2 and -2.5.

Sagarin gives us a number of ASU -1.5.  This line is pretty accurate with the slightest of overlays. 

The Sun Devils and Jayhawks are two teams trying to find their footing in the Big 12 after rough starts to conference play. Arizona State won its first three games, but fell 30-22 to Texas Tech on Sept. 21. They've had two weeks to prepare for Kansas, which is on a four-game losing streak. It's been a precipitous fall for the Jayhawks, who were ranked No. 19 in the country after their season-opening win, but have followed that with losses to Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia and TCU. Three of the losses have been by less than a touchdown.

College Football

Texas Tech @ Arizona

The line on this game was set at Wildcats -6.  This one has occasionally moved to the 5.5.

Two of the six teams that have yet to lose in Big 12 play meet in the desert. Arizona bounced back from a road loss to No. 20 Kansas State by picking up an impressive 23-10 road win at No. 18 Utah. The Wildcats were stellar defensively after being run over by Kansas State, intercepting two passes with eight pass breakups and seven tackles for loss. The Red Raiders have won three straight since losing to Washington State the second game of the season, including 44-41 over Cincinnati last week.