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With the Houston Texans shocking upset win over the Indianapolis Colts early Sunday and the Seattle Seahawks annihilating the favored San Francisco 49ers at press time, Gambling911.com can declare its Senior Reporter Carrie Stroup 2-0 on the day with her 2010 NFL picks.
Stroup used a formula whereby she is selecting the top 2 to 4 most bet on teams (those with heavy lopsided action) using the premise that the oddsmakers are “wiser” than the betting public and win over the long run.
This week, the Green Bay Packers were getting the most action of any single NFL team during Week 1. Both the Colts and 49ers were getting more than 90 percent each.
“Go against the public but do it intelligently,” says Stroup. “If a team among the top 4 most bet on is getting 70 percent of the action, I’ll be considering line moves and ‘opinions’ of the online sportsbooks. But 70 percent is playing it close in this scheme.”
This week was relatively easy, considering the top 3 most wagered on teams were getting 80 percent or more of the action.
Stroup stayed clear of the Buffalo Bills, who failed to cover, even though they were the 4th most bet on team in the NFL during Week 1.
“The Bills were not a convincing enough play for me,” said Stroup.
Gambling911.com was awaiting the results of the Packers/Eagles game. Stroup had the Eagles at +3 ½.
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Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
