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Cincinnati vs. South Florida College Football odds had Cincinnati as the away favorite at either -2 ½ or -3. betED.com offered Cincinnati at -2 ½ and this was the team much of the public was backing at a more than 80 percent clip heading into game day Thursday.
Cincinnati vs. South Florida odds opened at Bearcats -1 ½ and the line quickly moved all the way up to -3. It should be noted that the Las Vegas Hilton was still holding firm at -1 ½ at press time early Thursday morning.
Here are some important current season scenarios to consider prior to betting on this game:
Bearcats QB Tony Pike continues to lead the Bearcats' spread attack and has been getting the ball out quickly to multiple receivers. This will likely throw South Florida off its game a bit. Their defense will need to get to Pike quick - a difficult task.
Cincinnati LT Jeff Linkenbach and RT Sam Griffin will be challenged by defensive ends in George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul when it comes to protection.
The Bearcats will be entering a hostile environment Thursday night, so home field advantage plays an important role here.
The Sagarin Ratings have Cincinnati able to win by 2 points, which is better than the opening -1 ½ point line. The Sagarin Predictor Rating, which is based on score margin, makes this a dead even matchup in South Florida.
Over the past three years, Cincinnati has beaten South Florida by more than 5 points on the road and by more than 14 points in their two home games against South Florida. Their win against South Florida in 2007 was as a +4 ½ underdog. Both teams are currently undefeated and considered solid contenders.
Important Cincinnati vs. South Florida College Football odds trends to consider before betting on this game:
The Bearcats are 15-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Bearcats are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
The Bearcats are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week.
Cincinnati is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on grass.
The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Bulls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gambling911.com believes that Cincinnati can win this by -2 ½ points as Cincinnati has a slight edge when it comes to offense vs. defense and a solid edge when it comes to recent head-to-head meetings. Past trends provide additional support for this pick while the Sagarin ratings only slightly give an edge to South Florida.
Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
