NFL Draft Reflections: Where is There an Impact on Futures Betting Odds?

A few reflections on what just happened in the NFL Draft:

* Obviously the Houston Texans (+3000 to win the Super Bowl at WagerHome.com) shared the thinking of many observers - that Jadeveon Clowney was the best athlete by far in this draft, And he potentially forms an incredible pass-rushing duo with J.J. Watt. But he ducked out of some drills at the combine - while he was standing on the field. It makes you wonder about the guy.

* Blake Bortles certainly LOOKS like a quarterback, or at least the ideal on the part of NFL scouts as to what a quarterback should look like. Let's just hope, for the sake of the Jacksonville Jaguars, that he develops into more of a "content" player than a "form" player. 

* As for Greg Robinson (Rams), Jake Matthews (Falcons) and Taylor Lewan (Titans), how far wrong can you really go with a stud offensive tackle like that? Those guys tend to be around for years. 

* Aaron Donald of Pittsburgh looked like a guy who could dominate in the middle of the line every time we saw him. So it may indeed be fortuitous that the Rams (+4000 in WagerHome's NFL futures odds) were able to pick up both him and Robinson in the first round. Don't they deserve an "A" for that?

* Ha Ha Clinton Dix (first round, Packers) had better not turn out to be a joke. 

* Perfect examples of how inaccurate some of these early forecasts are on players: Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville went deep into the season as someone considered to be a possible #1 pick in this draft. Instead, he lasts until the last pick in the first round as he is taken by the Minnesota Vikings (+8000). If he can't eventually take over the starting QB job, and THIS season, then NFL bettors can regard this pick as a failure. Also, what about Derek Carr of Fresno State? There was that speculation about how poetic it would be if he was taken first overall by the Texans like his brother (David) once was. Then Carr played against a real defense (USC) in his bowl game and talk of being #1 - serious talk that is - went out the window. He winds up #36 overall to the Raiders, and we'll see if he truly has anything to offer. 

* Seriously, when you talk about these quarterbacks, it's so hard to predict where they are going to wind up. There probably weren't a lot of people who thought that Tom Savage of Pitt (fourth round, Texans) would be chosen before the likes of Aaron Murray,. AJ McCarron  AND Zach Mettenberger (who can't escape a pass rush)? And don't you remember that Tajh Boyd was in some of the "expert" mock drafts as a projected first-rounder? He finally went in the sixth to the New York Jets (+5000 at WagerHome for Super Bowl glory, with Michael Vick in tow), where he is a bargain. 

* A punter, Patrick O'Donnell of Miami, was taken twelve spots ahead of Boyd. 

* But hey, running back Lache Seastrunk of Baylor, who was trying to tout himself for the Heisman, may turn out to be another bargain among those sixth-rounders, as he was chosen by the Redskins. Too bad Mike Shanahan isn't still there; he knew what to do with those low-round draft picks. 

* It's kind of ironic that Michael Sam was just seven picks away from being Mr. Irrelevant. His relevance is obviously widely-known. Sam finally went in the seventh round, 249th overall, to the St.Louis Rams. Here is what we have found interesting; the feel-good media have been going on and on about how he deserves to be treated like everybody else, so what do the major outlets do? Treat him like anything BUT a seventh-round draft pick. WAY too much attention. And it's not as if he was such a prime prospect to begin with. You get the feeling that ESPN would have loved for the Brooklyn Nets to have inserted Jason Collins into their playoff game later that evening. Then they could have spent months patting themselves on the back about what compassionate human beings they are. Meanwhile, read any of the books that have been written about ESPN and you'll find out what a sexist and homophobic workplace it has been. 

And finally, let's talk about Johnny Football. It probably should not have been all that unexpected that Johnny Manziel slipped to #22, where the Cleveland Browns (a longshot in NFL futures betting at WagerHome, at +6000) made a deal to draft him there. After all, for teams to draft a quarterback in the first round, it is generally in pursuit of a particular need. But some teams passed on him, specifically higher up in the draft order, because they may have shared the same view that was detailed in a New England Patriots scouting report that was leaked on the website Deadspin. It talked about a general lack of dedication on the part of Manziel; that he really isn't the type to engage in optional workouts or take in a lot in meetings, and that he never bothered to learn all of the Texas A&M offense.

It said that he was, more or less, a spoiled brat (his family has a lot of oil money), and that says he "Knows how to scheme the system, arrogant and full of himself" and that he "Will never take football seriously enough for our coaching staff, he'll hate meetings, will have to drag him to work out, etc. The definition of the word maintenance."

Yes, certainly he acts like a kid at times. And he needs more discipline. But while we look at these classic 6'5", 230-pound thoroughbreds and wonder if they can actually make a play or two when people are running after them at the pro level, we know one thing without question - Manziel has a rare football instinct and has made some plays that are beyond belief; perhaps never seen before in college football. In other words - and with reference to what we said about Bortles earlier in this piece - he may not LOOK the part in every way, but he can PLAY THE GAME, which in the end will mean something. 

The Browns made a pick that was well-spent.