Are Same Game Parlays a Scam?

Ahead of "Fox NFL Sunday", we had an opportunity to check out "Fox NFL Kickoff".  The show is sponsored by DraftKings and heavily promotes Same Game Parlays (SGPs).

A Same Game Parlay (SGP) works the same as a regular parlay but allows you to combine multiple outcomes from the same game. A Same Game Parlay is dependent on all of those outcomes winning, just like a regular parlay. They are notorious hard to win.  Offshore sportsbooks did not even offer Same Game Parlays until regulation arrived in the U.S. in 2018. 

Establishing the Run presented the math behind Same Game Parlays.

Sportsbooks also love parlays. In January of 2024, New Jersey books held 19.9% on parlays. For reference, if you are a 50% bettor randomly betting into 20-cent lines (-110 each way), the hold is -4.6%. Sportsbooks are holding nearly five times higher on parlays than they would if everyone simply bet without an edge at -110, yet consumers still adore parlays.

Parlays compound your edge, whether it’s positive or negative. Unlike same-game parlays, they don’t add hidden vig or anything like that. At -110 odds, you must win 52.4% of your bets to be profitable. On a parlay of two -110 bets, you need to win 27.5% of the time — which can also be written as 52.4% multiplied by itself. However, your edge, expressed as a percentage, will be much different betting parlays vs. betting straights.

There also exists a theory that betting parlays looks good on accounts, although I can’t confirm this with 100% certainty. However, since most parlay action is square action — as demonstrated by the absurdly high hold percentage — betting parlays could lead to a longer lifespan for winning accounts. With that being said, it’s not like same-game parlays where the books themselves may struggle to identify if a bet is actually +EV; it seems like it should be fairly straightforward for a book to tell if a parlay is good or not based on the same factors they use to identify +EV straight bets.

Redditors have long questioned whether SGPs are scams.

"I really think they parlays they push that say others play it are trash and it's money making cuz they rarely hit if ever. The boosts on the other hand....UConn to win both halves yesterday at +170? I forgot was nice Boost."

"I’ve seen a few hit. Some that were like $10 pays $27.88 but it’s no secret that they always have a long shot leg in there to make it bust."

"Yes, as in never take the bait best bet is too look at it as a reference and make your own. I have had good luck on boosted tho."

"All parlays are basically to scam people. The popular ones have hit for me like 3 out of 10 times. Usually there is one leg that is almost impossible and the other 3 or 4 look good. The only times those hit for me was when it was a crazy game like 135-140 or something."

"Put it this way, Fanduel isn’t going to promote the ones they think will actually hit."