Betting Market: 7-2 SCOTUS Split on Trump Immunity

The decision is expected any day now.  How will the Supreme Court split in the Donald Trump immunity case?

The betting markets are offering some glimpse into how it might all go down.  After all, they did get a Trump conviction correct in his Manhattan "hush money" trial with the chances set at 75%.

A little background first: In February 2024, former President Trump claimed absolute immunity from being investigated for any crimes committed while in office. In response to Trump's request, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments from the former president on April 25, 2024.

The Supreme Court has previously ruled that former presidents can’t be sued in civil cases for what they did in office, but it has never weighed in on criminal immunity.

Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee and, as of June 15, still the favorite to be elected president.

According to the Manifold betting market, a 7-2 vote in favor of Trump is currently the favorite at +156.

A 9-0 ruling in Trump's favor surprisingly has the second shortest odds at +355.

Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas are seen as potentially being swayed by Trump's argument though the betting public remains mostly unconvinced.

MoveOn organized a petition drive back in April that argued Thomas should step away from the case because of the role his wife, Ginni, played in the right-wing effort to reverse the 2020 election results.

"From secret gifts from right-wing donors to weighing in on cases that his wife is connected to, Thomas has a longstanding history of conflicts of interest," the petition reads. "It's crucial that we raise the pressure now and demand that Justice Thomas recuse himself from this case immediately!"

More recently, it was revealed that a “Stop the Steal” symbol was displayed at Alito’s home in January 2021 and that Alito flew an insurrection symbol at his New Jersey beach home at approximately the same time.

"Sadly, you are now the second justice who has demonstrated at least an appearance of a conflict of interest related to the events surrounding the January 6 insurrection," Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, a Navy veteran and former Assistant U.S. Attorney, wrote in a letter directed towards Justice Alito.