New Betting Markets Released August 5, 2024: Fed Emergency Rate Cut in 2024, More

The financial markets were teetering on despair Monday morning so it goes without saying, new financial betting markets are now up and running and gaining interest.

Fed Emergency Rate Cut in 2024?

Backers were giving this one a 26% chance +285  odds but was as high as a 58% chance earlier in the AM with $60,000 plus bet thus far.

Per Polymarket, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between August 2 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2024.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

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Market Crash Odds

U.S. recession in 2024

26% were backing this happening.  That's a pretty low number.  It did peak earlier at 41%.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States within the calendar year 2024, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The determination will be based on the most recently released report by the BEA for each quarter.

If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself.

The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.

U.S. Bank Failure By October 31

Ouch!  The odds are somewhat high here at +144 or 41%, though the chances are mostly hovering between that number and 34%.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between August 2, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.