Weekly Review From Behind the Desk - September 16, 2024

Here is our Third installment of look behind the counter at the BetAmapola sportsbook. These weekly articles will focus on high volume games, one way action, and which sides the big bettors tend to fall on. You can follow along at @BetAmapola on X so you can get a real time look at the action we are taking and where the money is at, along with any other juicy nuggets we can provide.

One way line movers:

We noticed a trend in week two with one way line moving games. This is when a game steams in one direction and never drifts back to the opener. Some people will refer to it as “playing steam”. The biggest one way line movers of the week last week cashed for the bettors with ease. This week, we saw Notre Dame as the biggest one way mover of the week. Obviously, we saw this did not work out well for the bettors as ND resumed their pursuit at a playoff spot with a dominating win. Texas was the exact same situation as they had one way action with very little buy back on the underdog. Texas looks unstoppable and bettors will probably keep riding them until they let them down. The biggest one way game that the gamblers lost was Jacksonville State, as they lost a 2OT thriller. We will keep monitoring this trend going forward as they seem to be winning at a high clip.

UFC Crazy Action:

The craziest thing we saw all weekend, was the extreme one way action on Sean O’Mally in the Main Event. We ended up with about 15 times more bets on O’Malley than Merab when all was set and done. No matter how far the book would keep moving the line, public money kept pouring on Sugar Sean. We ended up with one of our biggest positions of the year on the fight. Right before fight time, the big bettors came in and scooped Merab up at good prices, and they saw themselves cruise to an easy victory. These UFC fights with high profile superstars such as Sugar Sean, always seem to steam harder than anything else in sports. Some of these Superstars include Mcgregor, Periera, O’malley, and Dustin Porier.

Big Bettor vs Small Bettors:

We saw this a lot this weekend in College Football. Alabama had nearly 5 times the amount of wagers on them as Wisconsin. UGA had nearly 6 times the bets as Kentucky. Ole Miss had 11 times more bets on them as their opponent. Lastly, Indiana had 4 times more bets than UCLA. As you can see here, it worked out well for the small bettors and the “Public” money as UGA was the only one not to cover. We believe people will continue to bet teams like Ole Miss and Texas until they prove they can be stopped.

Nuggets and Tidbits:

-Undervalued Teams: Teams that we feel the market has yet to catch up to in terms of how strong they are. Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, and South Carolina all are rolling at the moment and we will see how long it takes for the market to catch up to them. Ole Miss and Texas have no desire to take their foot off the gas pedal late in games, leading to them continuing to score points and cover spreads late in games with ease.

-As was the case last two weeks, games that steamed in one direction early in the week had an extreme tendency to move back closer to the opening line as the game approached. This could be a factor of early week group think or even perhaps line manipulation while the limits are lower early in the week, allowing the big bettors to come in and grab a better number closer to game time.

- We saw Notre Dame lose outright as 28 point favorites last week. This clearly had a huge impact on the perception of their team overall and caused them to be undervalued against Purdue. Some bettors will focus on a strategy of backing teams that looked poorly the week prior, causing them to be undervalued in the betting market.

-Injury Games: Wisconsin, SDSU, and South Carolina all lost their QB’s during the course of the game, so we will tend to throw out these results when looking at them in the future. This is a good practice for bettors to have, as it will allow them to see the whole picture of why a certain outlier result may have happened.