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When it comes to 2009 Breeders Cup Classic expert picks and predictions, Gambling9111.com looks to the experts, something we certainly are not. We simply monitor the odds.
Ron Rippey of the NJ Star Ledger points out that Rip Van Winkle, the favorite to win the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic at most online sportsbooks including SBG Global is anything but coming into this race. His odds were listed at +335 now with Zenyatta passing him by at +300 (both horses pay in the range of $30 to $35 for every $10 bet).
"Rip Van Winkle looked like a sure thing until his well-documented foot problems resurfaced this week," Rippey points out.
Still, Rip Van Winkle can't be written off just yet.
"Famed European trainer Aidan O'Brien says Rip is the ‘best athlete and horse' he has ever had and that's saying a lot from the conservation trainer.
"If Rip Van Winkle's ‘feet don't fail me now' the race may be over. He has the tactical speed to stay clear of trouble and the unique ability to take off again when challenged, he has won his last two starts after losing the prior three races to Sea The Stars. Perhaps most important, his foot problems have plagued him throughout his racing career and he still has responded like a champion."
Gio Ponti is another of the entries Rippey likes.
"He owns a 4-for-8 career record and the general consensus is that his turf form will be able to convert to the Pro-Ride. A similar thing happened last year when European invader Ravens Pass won the Classic.
"Gio Ponti has been a grass star winning 4-of-his-last-5 races. He has won over the Pro-Ride surface and noteworthy is that he has won 3-of-4 races at this 1 1/4-mile route on the turf. The hottest rider in America, Ramon Dominguez, rides for veteran trainer Christophe Clement who has won 23% of the time in graded stakes competition."
Gio Ponti would pay out $1200 for every $100 bet at SBG Global.
Rippey warns that Summer Bird would otherwise make an excellent fit if not for the synthetic surface. He has never ridden on a synthetic surface.
And what about the new favorite, Zenyatta?
Jason Shandler of Bloodhorse.com isn't convinced.
"I've discussed at length my feelings on Zenyatta. I think she is up against too much here--new distance, facing males, etc. Her numbers just don't match up on paper with the best here, in my opinion. She simply has not been as good as she was last year any way you want to slice it. She didn't face much all season during a hand-picked campaign. She must take major strides forward to win this race and I don't see it happening. She's the perfect favorite to play against, in my opinion, especially with her running style. I'll use her on the bottom of exotics. If she wins, I have no problem coming back and saying I was wrong."
Shandler also likes Gio Ponti in addition to Richard's Kid (+1200 odds), Colonel John (+1000 odds) and Einstein (+1200).
"Richard's Kid impressed me with his works this week. He is just an improving horse who loves synthetics and really has a nice stride. He will be coming hard at the end.
"Colonel John is on his favorite track and coming off a big Goodwood effort. He is an honest horse who should be sitting mid-pack and advancing on the turn. I'm just not sure he is fast enough against these. He wouldn't surprise me if he won, but you have to take a stand on some.
"I had the hardest time separating Gio Ponti and Einstein. Other than Rachel, they have been the best horses in America this year, in my opinion."
ESPN's Jay Cronley is on 1. Richard's Kid 2. Zenyatta 3. Gio Ponti with the long shot being Twice Over, which would pay out $1500 for every $100 bet at SBG Global.
Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
