Breeders Cup Classic 2011 Picks

A few Breeders Cup Classic 2011 picks from the experts as Gambling911.com readers prepare to place bets either at Churchill Downs or online with Churchill Downs right here (TwinSpires is their official online horse book).   

Uncle Mo at 4/1 odds: "Uncle Mo has never looked better, has never trained better," owner Mike Repole said. "This is the Uncle Mo we thought we'd see the whole 3-year-old season. For him to make this comeback in just four months from being diagnosed is amazing."

Uncle Mo lost 200 pounds while suffering an intestinal illness that sidelined him during the Triple Crown this past summer. 

Doc Moseman of the long established sports handicapping service Doc Sports had this to offer regarding Uncle Mo:

“If it was all about talent then this horse would win easily. I have real concerns about his distance capabilities, and at this price I’m just not willing to gamble.

“I’m not going to leave him entirely off of exotic tickets because he’s very good, but I just don’t believe he can be at his best in this race.”

Havre De Grace – At 4/1 odds, is at times slightly favored over Uncle Mo to win the Breeders Cup Classic 2011.

Doc says of Havre De Grace:  “This filly is no Zenyatta, but like that super horse she is more than capable of beating the boys. In fact, she has done it once already this year in the Woodward.”

The problem:  “She has only tried this distance twice and both times she has lost her lead in the stretch and finished second. That's a concern against a deep field like this.”

Doc likes Stay Thirsty:  “We know he can get the distance and he’s only getting better. He's a very attractive option at anything over 10/1.”

Drosselmeyer at 15/1 odds:  “He has run well at Churchill in the past and with a big day he could be a factor here.”

To Honor And Serve at 12/1 odds:  “Bill Mott is very good at preparing a horse for a big race and he’s done a good job of having him fresh and ready here. He is bred to love the distance, and his best day could be good enough.  At this price he’s a very interesting proposition.”

The Associated Press agrees with Doc’s assessment of Drosselmeyer and we would certainly include him among our 2011 Breeders Cup Classic picks.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Drosselmeyer is 1-for-6 since the Belmont victory, but the 4-year-old seems to be rounding into form. He was second behind Flat Out most recently in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. And he can handle this track, scoring his first win at Churchill Downs in 2009.

When it comes to the long shots at this year’s Breeders Cup Classic, there are really none longer than Headache at 30-1 odds. 

Matt Gardner of SBNation.com:

Headache has raced at Churchill Downs seven times in his career, winning three races and finishing 2nd and 3rd in two others; he should have no problem taking to the surface.  The mile and a quarter distance also shouldn't be a problem for this colt since he won a race at the Classic distance in his last start.

In most of his recent races, Headache has preferred to run as a closer and has found himself eight or nine lengths back of the pacesetters in the early going.  That's a difficult running style to use successfully in races with big, crowded fields because of the possibility of encountering traffic in the home stretch.  On the other hand, Churchill Downs has a very long stretch drive (1,234.5 feet) giving closers a lot of time to shake free of any trouble to mount a late charge (see Zenyatta in the 2010 Classic).

The current five-day forecast for Churchill Downs suggests that this year's Breeder's Cup might be able to sneak by without any rain.  That would certainly be good news for Headache as he's never won a race over a wet track in five lifetime starts.

And these are just a few of the 2011 Breeders Cup Classic picks to consider.  The payouts will be $400 and up on a $100 bet.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com