Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans Betting Odds: UFC 145

Carrie Stroup here with your Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans betting odds for UFC 145.  I also have a preview of the Miguel Angel Torres (39-4-0) vs. Michael McDonald (14-1-0) fight. 

Sportsbook.com Line: Jones -450, Evans +325

The light heavyweight title is on the line in UFC 145 with Rashad Evans challenging Jon Jones for the belt.

Jones enters this bout as an extreme favorite, most recently garnering a submission of Lyoto Machida in the second round to defend his title. Three of Jones’ past four wins have come via submission. Evans, despite coming in as the underdog, has beaten many top opponents—the former light heavyweight title holder lost the belt to Machida in 2009, but has bounced back admirably with wins over Thiago Silva, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Tito Ortiz and Phil Davis. Jackson challenged Jones before Machida and lost. Jones is clearly the superior fighter in this matchup, and at 6-foot-4, holds a significant height advantage over his challenger. But the odds vastly overestimate the reality of how close this fight may be. Evans has among the best endurance in the game and will not be easily susceptible to Jones’ aggressive submission approach.

Jones first won the title in March of last year from Mauricio Rua, who he knocked out in the third round. His game is based in wrestling, making takedowns the key element to his game, but he is far from a one-dimensional fighter. He works his opponents with the takedowns and finishes with submissions, but his striking attack is prevalent throughout. He is trained in Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai and at 24 years old is still in the infancy of his career. Although he likely will come out victorious in this one, the likelihood does not match the lines for this fight.

Evans is much more of a one-type fighter, with a game heavily based in takedowns at 72%. Striking makes up the rest of his attack with submissions hardly playing a role. This match may come down to wrestling and that is a good thing for Evans, who does not always have an opponent willing to engage him in those ground tactics. The height differential may play much less of a factor if they fight this one on the ground, giving Evans the small window for the upset. 

Miguel Angel Torres (39-4-0) vs. Michael McDonald (14-1-0)

Sportsbook.com Line: Torres -120, McDonald -110

On UFC 145’s main card highlighted by the Jones-Evans title bout, two exciting bantamweights will take the octagon in Miguel Angel Torres and Michael McDonald.

Both fighters stand 5-foot-9, with the heights as even as the odds entering this bout. Torres has suffered losses in three of his past six matches, but has been facing the sport’s toughest competition after he first lost the WEC bantamweight title to Brian Bowles in August 2009. McDonald has fought a lighter schedule of fighters but beaten them handily. He has won seven bouts in a row, four of which he finished in the first round. Although nothing will come as easily as that against a veteran like Torres, McDonald has elite power, even to knock out a top opponent. He’s strong and versatile enough to handle Torres’ usually lethal combination of strikes and submissions with his agility and strong defense.

Torres most recently is coming off a decision win in a catchweight bout against Nick Pace and before that lost to Nick Johnson. As a veteran of the sport, Torres has won every way possible in his 39 victories, but rules by submission, a tactic he’s used for victory 23 times. His past two victories have come as decision wins however, a sign that at 31 years old, he may not be as dominant in the octagon as he once was. The Jiu-Jitsu artist clearly has some gas left in the tank as evidenced by his most recent win, but it may not match the firepower of McDonald.

McDonald’s last win was against Alex Soto, who had never lost in his MMA career prior to that. McDonald knocked him out in 56 seconds, giving him eight KOs in 14 career wins. Also trained in Jiu-Jitsu, McDonald makes takedowns more a part of his game than Torres, which may make him more dangerous in this bout. As the quicker and younger fighter, McDonald should have the unique opportunity to dictate the pace of this fight, a hallmark of his KO victories, but something a fighter like Torres surely is not used to. Torres will provide a much different battle than a UFC newcomer like Soto, but also has not looked like the same fighter he once was over the last year.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com