Favorite to Win 2012 Kentucky Derby Is….

Written by :

Dan Shapiro

Published on :

30 April, 2012

Which horse will be the favorite to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby? That is anybody’s guess as two contenders – Union Rags and Bodemeister – were co-favorites at the start of the week, alternating between 4/1 and 5/1 odds at WagerWeb.com.

Two others – Gemologist and Dullahan – were right up there with 7/1 odds.

It could all come down to Wednesday’s post position draw. Typically, the odds shift dramatically after the draw based on favorable starting positions (or unfavorable).

"If Bodemeister has a bad draw, then it's got to be Union Rags," Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia told USA TODAY Sports. "And if Union Rags has a bad draw, it would be the other way around.

History is against Bodemeister in a big way while Union Rags found himself nipped in the Breeders Cup Juvenile by Hansen, a current 14-1 long shot, hence the reason Gambling911.com predicts another contender might enjoy favorite status by Derby Day.

Bodemeister comes into the Derby unraced at 2 and the last horse to win the big race under similar circumstances did so in 1882 (note the “18”, that’s not a “19”). Yes, that would be 130 years ago. The Derby itself was begun in 1875.

"It will come into play," Battaglia said. "Everybody knows that statistic. He is so lightly raced, and they've asked him to do a lot in a short period of time."

One cannot underestimate Gemologist or Dullahan either.

Dullahan stunned at the recent Blue Grass while Gemologist is a perfect 5-5 after winning the Wood Memorial on April 7.

The latest 2012 Kentucky Derby odds were available from WagerWeb.com and subject to change so check their website for latest odds. Receive up to $1000 in FREE CASH for qualified new signups.

Bodemeister +400 or 4/1

Union Rags +500 or 5/1

Gemologist +700 or 7/1

Alpha +1400 or 14/1

Creative Cause +1100

Dullahan +700

Hansen +1600 or 16/1 (note Hansen’s odds previously 14/1)

I’ll Have Antoher +1200

Take Charge Indy +1200

El Padrino +2000

Went The Day Well +2000

Daddy Nose Best +2000

Daddy Long Legs +1400 (these odds slashed from 25/1)