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El Padrino was listing at 20 to 1 odds of winning the 2012 Kentucky Derby at WagerWeb.com, which was offering up to $1000 in FREE CASH for qualified customers. We have seen him as low as 13/1 so the price of 20/1 is good value. We see his price being cut if the rains manage to come in. He is a proven mud horse. As of Friday evening, there was a 50 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon and at race time.
But El Padrino is being overshadowed by another Todd Pletcher trained horse, Gemologist, who was getting the most early action offline.
After winning the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, El Padrino finished fourth in the Florida Derby, but was only three lengths back.
“No one is paying him much attention which I think is good,” Pletcher said. “I felt like we had a legitimate excuse in the last race in the way that we rode him. This is going to be his first opportunity to relax in the early part of a race and let the race unfold as opposed to riding towards the bias of the track or worrying about the 1-5 favorite.”
Gambling911.com has already noted how we are not a fan of El Padrino taking off from the number 16 spot. This is the spot that won it for Animal Kingdom last year but only two other wins have come from this post position in Derby history. The odds of two consecutive years when the number 16 spot produces a Derby win is hard to fathom.
El Padrino deserves a look nonetheless. He’s a contender to be certain, especially in the mud.
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
