Can Any Horse Beat California Chrome in the Belmont Stakes? The Competition

With more than half the wagers coming in on California Chrome to win the 2014 Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown, we ask the question: Can any of this year’s contenders actually beat California Chrome? He would pay near EVEN odds (-110) at Sportsbook.com.

The odds are stacked against Chrome.

Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown back in 1978, eleven horses have tried to do the same, entering the Belmont Stakes having won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.  Each has come up short.

The good news for California Chrome is that his competition appears to be somewhat on the weak side and this is evident in the odds.

Wicked Strong had the next shortest odds of winning at nearly 6/1.  He has one advantage over California Chrome, that being a win already at Belmont Park.

He is a grinder that is capable of running the distance of Belmont but was beaten by more than five lengths by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby.

Likewise, Samraat (21/1 odds) and Tonalist (12/1 odds) have both won races at Belmont Park. Both are capable of running the distance.

Samraat is considered to have home track advantage here.  This fast horse could slow down the pace early on but there is a fear that Samraat might have peaked too early on in his career.

Tonalist’s Peter Pan win was highly impressive but this race will be a step up in class.  Can he meet the challenge?  We already know he’s capable of running the distance.

Medal Count (12/1) is surging at just the right time.  He raced well at the Kentucky Derby but encountered some interference with Danza down the stretch.  His odds of catching the winner, however, are slim as the pace of the Belmont Stakes is not likely to suit Medal Count's style.

Commanding Curve (10/1 odds) finished 2^nd at the Kentucky Derby as a mighty large long shot.  He was the only entry gaining on California Chrome down the stretch. Closers like Commanding Curve do tend to have difficulties at Belmont Park, however.

Ride On Curlin (8/1 odds) finished a strong 2^nd place at the Preakness Stakes after a difficult run at the Kentucky Derby.  The extra distance could help this contender.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com