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The 134th Preakness features 13 horses going 1 3/16 miles on Saturday. For my 2009 Preakness preview, I'm classifying them in several categories from those 3-year-olds that stand little chance to those horses that wouldn't surprise.
The Don't Belongs Birds Flying Private: Should change his name to Walking Buckless Private. He's one for 11, and that was at six furlongs way back in August. He's coming off a last place finish in the Derby beaten 43 ¾ lengths. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has no chance of saddling his sixth winner in 33 Preakness starts at 50-1.
Luv Guy: I don't. A bad omen -- he's named for former New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer who resigned in disgrace. He has no business in the field after just breaking his maiden on Derby Day. Be battling for last. Lukas stands no chance of saddling his sixth winner in 34 starts at 50-1. Tone It Down: Is 2-2-0 at a Maryland track, but it's Laurel Park. But victories in optional claiming and maiden special weight contests don't merit trying the big boys and girl. The 50-1 long shot drew post 12 and could finish there.
The Pretenders Big Drama: His record is impressive - 6 for 7. But he only ran once this year, losing by DQ to sprinter This Ones for Phil at seven furlongs. This speed horse breaks from post 1 and must go to the lead. Surprisingly he's 10-1 on the morning line Thursday. Better chance in one of two stakes at six furlongs on the Preakness Day. Only three of the past 36 races were wire-to-wire jobs. Take the Points: Better get four TDs because he disappointed in both Derby preps, then skipped the Run for the Roses. Trainer Todd Pletcher is stretching it a bit off allowance and maiden-breaking scores. The 30-1 shot breaks from post 11. Terrain: Both victories came as a 2-year-old. Chased three running on Saturday. Maybe worth a play at 30-1 since he drew post 6 that has produced the most wins - 15. Hunch bettors, you make the call.
The Contenders Friesan Fire: Not sure if he has fully recovered from one of the dozen bad trips at Churchill Downs during which he suffered cuts on his legs. One of two third choices at 6-1 that drew post 5 tries to become the first beaten Derby favorite to take the Preakness since Point Given in '01. General Quarters: The 20-1 odds are very enticing. His racing pattern the past four outings point to a big race: win, off the board, win, off the board. Must use in exotics. Might be worth a win wager.
Mine That Bird: Derby champ drew post 2 and is 6-1. If Pimlico comes up sloppy, his chances increase. I'm not sure he's as good as that last performance. Losing Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexander is a negative. Mike Smith is good, but don't expect the rail to open up again. Musket Man: The dark horse at 8-1. Another victim of a troubled Derby trip? Can he outrun his pedigree again? Might be worth using underneath in exotics. I may be sorry, but you can't bet 'em all.
My Personal 2009 Preakness Stakes Picks Pioneer of the Nile: The early 5-1 third choice answered one question in his dirt debut by finishing second in the Derby. He did well breaking from post 16 during a troubled trip. However, he caused most of the trouble. Post 5 is a better draw. Odds should drop a bit. Don't leave him out of the exotics.
Rachel Alexandra: Which came first the odds or the post-position draw? The morning line: 8-5. Won't be that low at race time. The post: unlucky 13. No horse ever triumphed from there. Will it make a difference? Could be since the pace should be contested. Don't leave her out of the exotics.
Papa Clem: The son of Smart Strike, who sired '07 winner Curlin, endured the worst of it in the Derby from the break: brushed and bumped, then under steady restraint chomping at bit, and bumped in the stretch when Pioneer of the Nile drifted out. He only lost second by a nose and a head. Five winners the past two decades breaking from post 7 won - Smarty Jones was the last in '04. Worth a win wager at 12-1, but should be lower. I'll also include in all the exotics.
All bets on the 2009 Preakness are courtesy of Bookmaker.com
Greg Melikov
