2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Girvin, Classic Emperor, McCracken, Hence

There are a handful of entrants at this year’s Kentucky Derby that we here at Gambling911.com deem to be top contenders, some of which promise some really good payouts.  

Girvin (21-1) – We are really high on this horse and believe him to be among the top contenders with a fantastic payout potential, even more so than the money favorites. 

He’s won both the Louisiana Derby and Risen Stakes (his last races).  Prior to this he had a 2nd place finish at the Keith Gee Memorial Stakes.

Girvin also has one of the better post position draws at the 7 spot, which has produced six wins, the most recent in 2007 with Street Sense. There were seventeen in the money finishes from this position.

Girvin’s Louisiana Derby win had placed him atop the Kentucky Derby points list just a few weeks ago.

Of his last four races, the only loss was on turf.

Girvin has had foot problems but appears in good shape now that he’s arrived at Churchill Downs.

Oh did we mention his jockey is Hall of Famer Mike Smith

Classic Empire (5.5-1) – It’s indeed rare to get a Kentucky Derby favorite potentially paying out $50 plus for every $10 bet but that’s exactly what we have here with a tight competitive field and no true standouts. 

There is plenty to like about Classic Empire, and some things not to like.

The later: Trainer Mark Casse has never won the Derby and neither has jockey Julien Leparoux.

Now for the good news: Classic Empire won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on his way to earning 2-year-old male champion honors.  He also won the critical and final Kentucky Derby prep race after recovering from a foot abscess.

Classic Empire has the highest earnings of $2.1 million among the horses expected to make the field, with five wins in seven career starts.

McCracken (7-1) – Has run great in the mud but it was looking more like a dryer track as we get closer to race time. McCracken has performed well at Churchill Downs so that is another great benefit he has here. 

American Pharoah won from this post position two years ago and went on to take the Triple Crown.

Hence (16-1) – His Bris speed figures were among the highest.  His number 8 starting position is among the best.

Trainer Steve Asmussen: "The eight for Hence is one of the preferred spots statistically. I think, looking at the stats the last 20 years, the eight, 13 and 16 posts have produced the most in-the-money finishes.”

Gunnevera (9-1) – From the Lexington Herald Leader:

Need to know: After his come-from-behind romp in the Fountain of Youth Stakes two months ago, Gunnevera looked the part of possible Derby favorite. He was again at the back of the pack — that’s his running style — in the Florida Derby and just couldn’t catch up to the soft pace — and Always Dreaming — in that one. Still, he was running at the end and managed a third-place finish. Javier Castellano — maybe the best jockey in America these days — looks for his first Derby win.

A good bet? If the pace melts down, he has a great shot to win. If it doesn’t, he should still be running at the end. Don’t forget about him Saturday.

Always Dreaming (5.5-1) – Todd Pletcher is looking for his first win with Always Dreaming, victorious at the Florida Derby and appearing to be peaking. 

His recent wins did come amidst a less competitive field and, for us, we’d prefer to get him at a better price as too many questions surround this contender, including whether he can go the distance and not peter out down the stretch. 

J Boys Echo (20-1) – A good number of interest in this horse from Gambling911.com readers so he needs to be mentioned among the top contenders.

From the Lexington Herald Leader:

Need to know: He won the Gotham Stakes impressively — with the best Bris speed figure this year among the horses in this field — then finished fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes after a bit of a rough trip. He’s likely to lay a few lengths off the lead for trainer Dale Romans, who’s searching for his first Derby win. Luis Saez rides for the first time after regular jockey Robby Albarado was injured at Keeneland a couple weeks ago.

A good bet? If he returns to his Gotham form, he’ll have a real chance at a great price. Don’t think that’ll happen. There’s some buzz behind this guy, but others look more intriguing

State of Honor (60-1) – While he is yet to win a race, State of Honor has finished among the top three in each of his last seven races.  Sure the competition will be stiffer but State of Honor should not be overlooked among your exacta bets or to finish in the top three.  A matter of fact, the payout would be $150 for every $10 bet for State of Honor to finish in the top three. 

Patch (36-1) – This is the one-eyed wonder and feel good story at this year’s Kentucky Derby,  Patch does have a decent shot at upsetting here at a very good price.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Prop Bets