Free NFL Betting Pick – Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Both teams enter the Thursday night tilt with identical 6-6 records, but they are in a different place within their respective divisions. Following two straight defeats the Cowboys remain the best team in the worst division in the NFL, holding a one-game lead over Philadelphia in the NFC East. The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, aren’t out of the playoff picture but they can’t afford another loss. Even if they win out qualifying for the postseason would be a stretch in the top-heavy NFC. Nonetheless we should have a good matchup with the Boys’ top offense facing the Bears stingy defense.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Date and Time: Thursday, December 5, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Opening NFL Odds: Dallas -3, O/U 42.5

Cowboys at Bears TV Coverage: FOX, NFL Network

Odds Analysis

Dallas hit the board as a 3-point favorite and the line has been stagnant except for a slight dip to -2.5. Quick buy back brought the line back to its opening number, though, and it’s remained. It appears as though oddsmakers got it right. The Bears are 0-2 SU and ATS this season when getting points, and it’s the first time they’ve been a home dog. They were 1-1 SU and ATS in such games last year. The Cowboys have been favored in all but one game posting a 6-5 SU and ATS record. When laying points on the road the Boys are 3-2 SU and ATS. There total spiked to 43.5 after opening at 42. The under is 5-1 in Chicago’s six home games.

Dallas Cowboys

Jerry Jones would like his team referred to as the first-place Cowboys and not the 6-6 Cowboys. It’s the same thing either way with Dallas benefitting from playing in a whacked out division. It’s all about getting to the postseason when anything can happen, and the Boys are close despite losing two in a row. Dallas continues to have the top-ranked offense in the league averaging nearly 433 yards per game, but that hasn’t translated into a lot of points.

The Cowboys totaled only 24 points in their last two games against two of the best scoring defenses in the NFL. They fell at New England 13-9, covering as a 5.5-point underdog. Looking over the stats from the Thanksgiving contest with Buffalo one might assume the Boys won. They put up 426 total yards and 32 first downs while converting 54 percent on third down. However, a pair of Dak Prescott turnovers, failures in the red zone and two missed field goals proved costly in a 26-15 setback.

Struggling to score consistently against top defensive teams, the Cowboys face another Thursday night. The Bears haven’t been the dominant unit they were last season though they rank among the top-10 in yards and points allowed per game. For Prescott it’s about putting his nose to the grindstone. “I’m going to work harder and if you’re a young guy looking for somebody to figure it out look at me and some of these other guys because that ‘s exactly what we’re doing – putting our head down focusing and doubling down on ourselves.”

Chicago Bears

Perhaps a bigger disappointment this season, the Bears have at least figured things out lately winning two straight and three of their last four. Two of the wins were over Detroit and the other came against the Giants, teams with a combined 5-18-1 record entering this week. But hey, a win’s a win, right. The run hasn’t meant much at the betting window, though, with the Bears dropping three straight ATS and going just 1-7 ATS over their last eight games.

Criticism of Mitchell Trubisky has quieted over the past few weeks with the former No. 2 pick having some stellar moments. He had his best game of the season last week against the Lions throwing for 338 yards on 29 of 38 passing with three touchdowns, including the game-winner in the final minutes. It was his first 300-yard passing game of the season. Over the last four games he’s completed over 64 percent for 979 yards and eight touchdowns. He had five TD passes in his first seven games.

Chicago took advantage of a break in the schedule last month by mopping up against last-place teams. They can’t afford any more setbacks to keep their slim postseason hopes alive with every team on the remaining schedule currently at or above .500. That set up hasn’t been good to them so far with the Bears only 1-4 SU and ATS in its previous games against clubs that are right now at or above the break-even point.

Bet Cowboys at Bears at BookMaker.eu

Two underachieving teams that badly need a victory should hopefully make for a good football game. The Bears haven’t done well against better competition and the Dallas offense has faltered against top defenses. Something has to give. I don’t think the Boys are 3-points better and I’m leaning to the home team with the points in a game that goes under the closing total.

NFL Score Prediction: Chicago 20, Dallas 17

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com