These 2023 March Madness Teams Will Make the Bookies Cry if They Cover
The numbers are in. These are the teams bookies do NOT want to cover in this year's NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament.
Top 5 Spread Liabilities
- Furman +5 (vs. Virginia)
- Auburn -1.5 (vs. Iowa)
- Arkansas -2 (vs. Illinois)
- West Virginia -3 (vs. Maryland)
- Penn State +2.5 (vs. Texas A&M)
This will mark Furman's first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 1980.
Paladins are 9-1 Against The Spread in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Auburn comes into the tournament a bit cold. The Tigers (20-11, 10-8 Southeastern Conference) had lost eight of their last eleven games including an overtime defeat at the hands of Albama and would go on to lose another one to Arkansas on Sunday in the Southeastern Conference Tournament. Still, the Tigers are 13-5 Against The SPread in their last 18 games following a straight up loss. They've also performed well in tournament play of late, going 5-1 Against The Spread in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
Top 3 ML Liabilities
- UL Lafayette +485 (vs. Tennessee)
- Arkansas -135 (vs. Illinois)
- West Virginia -3 (vs. Maryland)
As you can plainly see, the books are really going to be rooting hard for Illinois in this week's tournament. Arkansas is both a spread and moneyline liability.
Fighting Illini are 3-9 Against The Spread in their last 12 neutral site games.
Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Razorbacks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games.
Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
We would note that the Razorbacks do not have any player shooting 35 percent or better from long distance. Guard Nick Smith Jr. played in only 14 games due to injury but he scored 24 points at Alabama (Feb. 25) and 25 points against Kentucky (March 4).
Illinois enters this year's March Madness with a 20-12 record straight up and a respectable 18-14 Against The Spread. It should be noted that the Fighting Illini have a bit of a home court advantage playing in easily accessed Des Moines, Iowa, right next store.
"Certainly Illinois is really well-coached. They have some guys that we've played before, like Terrence Shannon, who was at Texas Tech. And obviously Matthew Mayer from Baylor," Arkansas coach Eric Musselman said. "They've got some really good transfers. It's an excellent shot-blocking team. But anybody from the Big Ten that qualifies for the NCAA Tournament is a really good team."
Two totals we have significant liability on today are Maryland/WVU UNDER 137.5 and Utah State/Mizzou OVER 155.
West Virginia represents yet another major liability.
Kedrian Johnson had 20 points, Tre Mitchell added 17 points and nine rebounds in their final game of the season for the Mountaineers, resulting in Texas Tech being knocked out of tournament contention. Erik Stevenson added 18 points and Emmitt Matthews Jr. contrributed 13.
West Virginia is 5-1 Against The Spread in their last 6 games overall.
Top 3 Futures Liabilities
- UConn
- UCLA
- Miami
People of a certain generation considered UConn synonymous with March Madness. Yet, outside of an appearance in 2019, the Huskies haven't had much college basketball success in the past 12 years. That appears to be about to change this year.
The Huskies won nine of 10 games before falling 70-68 to Marquette last Friday in the Big East tournament semifinals. Adama Sanogo finished with 19 points and 11 rebounds.
They promise a payout of $2000 on a $100 bet.
The Bruins (29-5 straight up) are also considered among the more dangerous teams entering this week's tournament play. They do have a bit of the injury bug however.
They played without two starters in last Saturday's Pac-12 tournament championship game. One of those starters, Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Adem Bona, is expected to play against the Bulldogs (27-7) after sustaining a left shoulder injury Friday night.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
