Trump Has an RFK Jr. Problem According to Recent Poll
There was some rare bad news for former U.S. President Donald Trump in a recent poll.
In a potential presidential re-match, President Joe Biden and Trump remain competitive with Biden scoring just three points more among registered voters nationally, according to a recent Marist poll. That's relatively good news for Trump as he's currently under multiple indictments and trials loom as we approach the new year.
Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also running and there were fears he might siphon away votes from Biden. But the Marist poll shows something else entirely. Kennedy Jr. announced he will be running as an Independent. This removes some of the stigma when it comes to Republican voters reluctance to vote for a Democrat.
"Biden opens up a 7-percentage point lead over Trump among the national electorate. Kennedy’s presence erodes Trump’s lead among independents and cuts into his support among Republicans. Trump’s loss among his base is double the loss Biden experiences among Democrats."
44% of registered voters support Biden. 37% back Trump, and 16% are for Kennedy.
BetOnline is offering odds for RFK Jr. to be elected next President in 2024 set at 20-1. He's got the 4th shortest odds after Biden, Trump and California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who is not running at this moment.
Did You Know: Betonline currently has RFK Jr. favored to Win at least 4 percent of the General Election vote share in the all important swing states of Arizona and Florida.
RFK Jr. odds opened among the top ten immediately after announcing he was jumping into the ring courtesy of one poll showing he had 18 percent of support among potential voters. His impact is expected to be significant enough that BetOnline is offering RFK Jr. betting markets.
Kennedy’s presence in the contest makes the race competitive among independents who break 34% for Trump, 33% for Biden, and 29% for Kennedy.
And the Trump campaign is beginning to take notice. Up until this point, the former President has been relatively kind to RFK Jr.
"Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values," a spokesperson for Trump said of Kennedy.
Fun Fact: Kennedy holds a number of beliefs that many Republicans, and more specifically Trump supporters, find appealing. Most famously, he is a vocal skeptic of vaccines, does not necessarily support gun control and opposes he opposes sending more aide to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
ABC News reports, "in the past month, five pollsters have conducted polls on Kennedy's favorable and unfavorable ratings broken down by party. On average, his net favorability among Republicans is +27 points (55 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable) — but his average net favorability among Democrats is -10 points (35 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable)."
“Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favor,” says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option especially independents.”
- Jordan Bach, Gambling911.com
