Trump Hit By Multiple Polls Following Conviction: Latest Odds

Lastest polls show that former U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a bit of a hit following his conviction last week in a Manhattan hush money trial.

A Manhattan jury has convicted Donald Trump on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his New York hush money trial.

Trump became the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes Thursday as a New York jury found him guilty of falsifying business records in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through hush money payments to a porn actor who said the two had sex.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, spoke after the verdict.

“The 12 everyday jurors vowed to make a decision based on the evidence and the law, and the evidence and the law alone. Their deliberations led them to a unanimous conclusion beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant Donald J. Trump is guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, to conceal a scheme to corrupt the 2016 election,” he said.

Sentencing will be on July 11.

Since that verdict, a series of polls were released.  An Ipsos/Reuters poll of 2,135 registered voters conducted between May 30 and 31 found that in a two-way race, 41 percent would vote for Trump's Democratic rival and current U.S. president Joe Biden if the election were held today. Trump, on the other hand, would garner 39 percent of the vote.

An Echelon Insights poll of 477 likely voters, also conducted between May 30 and 31 found that 49 percent would vote for Biden while 47 percent would vote for Trump. Previously, the pollsters found the pair tied with both on 47 percent of the vote share. The poll's margin of sampling error is +/- 5.6 percentage points.

A Morning Consult poll of 2,200 registered voters found that 45 percent would vote for Biden while 44 percent would vote for Trump. The poll, conducted on May 31, showed Biden gaining 3 percentage points up from May 28, when the firm conducted their last poll.

Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek that Trump's support could erode over time as a result of the conviction.

"Opinion on Trump is pretty much baked on across the country already, and last night's verdict won't change that. In the short term his polling, and indeed his fundraising may get a boost, but this may dissipate in the weeks and months to come as voters get beyond the emotion of the court's decision and focus on the fact that the former president was convicted by a jury of his peers: 12 citizens who weighed the evidence and simply did not believe him," Shanahan said.

He added: "Of course, this really matters only to the small percentage of undecided voters in half a dozen swing states who will decide this election. Will they buy into the victim story or concur that the law has finally caught up with a criminal who has used the courts to his own advantage for decades? Polls in the next few days will be largely meaningless. But post-sentencing, with other legal cases looming, the Trump campaign may well see support melt away."

24 hours after the Manhattan jury arrived at a guilty verdict, Biden's chances of being re-elected improved from +130 to +110.

As of Monday morning, Trump was coming in as the -140 favorite with Biden at +120.

We should note that just a few weeks ago both candidates were tied at -110 apiece.