What's the Line on the BYU vs. Baylor Game Saturday September 28?

• BYU comes into Week 5 4-0 and an underdog versus 2-2 Baylor.
• BYU’s defense forced three turnovers, Jake Retzlaff threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns to beat favored Kansas State in Week 4.
• Baylor suffered a heartbreaking overtime defeat against Colorado Saturday.

BYU is impressing so far this season with their 4-0 start as they get set to take on Baylor (2-2) Saturday.

The line opened at Bears -3.  Some books opened the number at -1.

Sagarin has BYU rated at No. 29 (78.31) and Baylor rated at No. 42 (76.10).  With home field advantage of 3.87 we get a number of Baylor 1.66.  The -3 line we were starting to see Sunday evening indicated a slight overlay though this one was mostly accurate within a one-point margin.

It's important to monitor this line movement carefully.  Our two-year model of accumulated data loves the dog (BYU) when there are overlays in the 2.5/3 range without rising above the 3.  Overlays in the 3/3.5 range, should that be the trend starting on Monday and continuing through the week, also favors the dog.

BYU enjoyed a statement win against No. 13 ranked Kansas State, 38-9.  The Cougars suddenly find themselves ranked at No. 22.

BYU’s defense forced three turnovers, Jake Retzlaff threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns and Parker Kingston had a highlight reel 90-yard punt return touchdown in a 38-9 victory over No. 13 Kansas State on Saturday night.

Sione Moa (pictured below) added a career-high 76 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

“A lot of people were surprised by this. They didn’t really think we could do this,” Moa said. “This is not a surprise to us. We know the work we put in to get to this point.”

Defensive end Tyler Batty said Moa has shown what he could do in preseason training camp, when Martin and Ropati were given light duty due to the previous injuries.

“We have seen glimpses of it in practice. It is like, ‘oh, he has got really good bounce.’ He runs really aggressively,” Batty said. “Again, I don’t think he surprised himself. He probably surprised some of us. I was surprised. We had seen glimpses, but you never know.

“For him to get out there and run the rock like that, especially that touchdown, it was like little Marshawn (Lynch) junior running around out there,” Batty continued. “It was something to see.”

The Cougars (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) snapped a five-game losing streak to Big 12 opponents.

Baylor, meanwhile, endured a hard luck overtime loss to Colorado in Week 4.  Colorado's LaJohntay Wester caught a 43-yard Hail Mary pass in the end zone to send this one into OT.  The Buffaloes would go on to win 38-31. 

“Heart-wrenching loss,” Baylor coach Dave Aranda said. “Haven’t really been a part of something like that, especially down to the last play of overtime. ... Very hard to take. The team is very is gutted right now, and so frustrated. We’re probably going to be hurting all the way back to Waco.”