Manifold Claims Single Trader Could Be Contributing to Rise in Trump's Odds at Gambling Sites

Over the last two weeks, Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump has gained momentum at gambling sites while the current vice president and democratic candidate Kamala Harris continues to lead by within three points - and well within the margin of error - in most national polls.

BetOnline has Trump at -160, the highest price he's reached since Harris entered the race.  Harris came in at +140 odds.  Heading into October, Harris' odds were in line with the polls as the -130 favorite.

BetOnline's Dave Mason reported on some rather large sized wagers coming in on Trump in recent days, including one for $142,500. 

Manifold Markets notes that prediction markets are hitting record trading volumes these days, much thanks to the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

"For the last few years, Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket each had ~500 to ~2,000 people trading on an average day."

These companies are also winning lawsuits against the CTFC to legalise election markets, and Manifold has pivoted to allow withdrawals for the first time.  They even offer a market on whether their accuracy will improve as a result of the real money payout potential.

Trump’s odds are up, but should you trust them?

From Manifold:

"Other than a small blip on day one, Trump finally reached parity and then surpassed Harris for the first time on Manifold’s sweepstakes market.

"Trump’s gain to 54% on Manifold is conservative when compared to his 62% on Polymarket. After months of flat graphs, these gains in prediction markets have caused quite a reaction on social media and major news. But, it’s important to take a step back and realise it’s still close to a tossup. While Trump now leads on prediction markets, polling and models are still favourable to Harris even if it’s neck and neck."

Twitter owner Elon Musk, and someone who is now all-in for Trump, has pointed out the gains on his social media platform. 

That has Manifold Markets, as well as a Polymarket trader named Domer, questioning whether one high stakes gambler backing the former president could actually be Elon himself. 

"It’s plausible that some of Trump’s recent gains in the markets can be attributed to a single trader. Fredi9999, as reported on by Polymarket’s top trader Domer, has around $30 million on Trump and pushed Polymarket’s market much higher than anyone is willing to bet it back down."

Domer writes:

   
Manifold did have a betting market on the identity of who Fredi could be but opted to take it down out of doxxing concerns. They also noted that the market does think it’s unlikely that there is substantial evidence of it being Elon Musk.

The odds really did shift rather dramatically after Elon shared Polymarket on X with his increasingly right-leaning fans, Manifold points out.

"While it’s still possible that these market movements are a well-calibrated reflection of the poorly perceived hurricane response by Harris and her lackluster interviews, enough time has passed since those events that it should be reflected in the polls.

"It was certainly easier to say trust the markets and not the polls when they both forecasted within tiny margins of one another. The next few weeks will be prediction markets’ biggest test yet to see that they don’t overcorrect in the face of hype from traders who are personally rooting for one side much more than the other. I’m still bullish on market accuracy overall, but it is important to know when to take the % on a given market with a grain of salt."