Odds, Probabilities for Senate and House Elections, Head-to-Head Matchups - 2024
BetOnline.ag is offering two types of Senate markets: Margin of Victory and Head-to-Head.
The House odds are head-to-head matchups, and you can see the implied probability of a victory by the favorite below each set of numbers.
Currently, the Republicans are better than a 1/6 favorite (-625) to control the Senate while the Democrats come back as 9/2 (+450) underdogs.
For the House seat majority, it’s an old-school tossup as both parties have equal odds.
If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source. And if you need a quote from an oddsmaker or anything else, please let me know.
U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS (MOV)
Texas - Cruz's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 4%
Nebraska (Regular) - Fischer's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 4%
Florida - Scott's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 7%
New Mexico - Heinrich's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 11%
Maryland - Alsobrooks' Margin of Victory
Over/Under 12%
Virginia - Kaine's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 12%
Missouri - Hawley's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 14%
New Jersey - Kim's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 14%
Minnesota - Klobochar's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 15%
Indiana - Banks' Margin of Victory
Over/Under 17%
Delaware - Blunt's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 18%
Connecticut - Murphy's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 19%
Mississippi - Wicker's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 20%
Washington - Cantwell's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 20%
New York - Gillibrand's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 21%
Rhode Island - Whitehouse's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 22%
Nebraska (Special) - Rickett's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 22%
Tennessee - Blackburn's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 24%
California - Schiff's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 25%
Massachusetts - Warren's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 27%
Utah - Curtis' Margin of Victory
Over/Under 30%
West Virginia - Justice's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 37%
North Dakota - Cramer's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 37%
Hawaii - Horono's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 38%
Vermont - Sanders' Margin of Victory
Over/Under 40%
Wyoming - Barrasso's Margin of Victory
Over/Under 44%
U.S. SENATE ELECTION (HEAD-TO-HEAD)
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Michigan |
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|
Elissa Slotkin (D) |
-275 |
|
|
Mike Rogers (R) |
+215 |
|
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(Odds imply a 73% probability Slotkin will win) |
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Ohio |
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|
Bernie Moreno (R) |
-210 |
|
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Sherrod Brown (D) |
+170 |
|
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(Odds imply a 68% probability Moreno will win) |
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Pennsylvania |
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Bob Casey (D) |
-260 |
|
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David McCormick (R) |
+200 |
|
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(Odds imply a 72% probability Casey will win) |
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Wisconsin |
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Tammy Baldwin (D) |
-200 |
|
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Eric Hovde (R) |
+160 |
|
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(Odds imply a 67% probability Baldwin will win) |
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Arizona |
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Ruben Gallego (D) |
-400 |
|
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Kari Lake (R) |
+300 |
|
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(Odds imply an 80% probability Gallego will win) |
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Montana |
||
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Tim Sheehy (R) |
-700 |
|
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Jon Tester (D) |
+450 |
|
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(Odds imply an 88% probability Sheehy will win) |
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|
Nevada |
||
|
Jacky Rosen (D) |
-400 |
|
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Sam Brown (R) |
+300 |
|
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(Odds imply an 80% probability Rosen will win) |
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|
Florida |
||
|
Rick Scott (R) |
-1500 |
|
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Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) |
+850 |
|
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(Odds imply a 94% probability Scott will win) |
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|
Nebraska |
||
|
Deb Fischer (R) |
-300 |
|
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Dan Osborn (I) |
+240 |
|
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(Odds imply a 75% probability Fischer will win) |
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Texas |
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|
Ted Cruz (R) |
-600 |
|
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Colin Allred (D) |
+375 |
|
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(Odds imply an 86% probability Cruz will win) |
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HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVE ELECTIONS - https://betonline.ag/
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Alaska-At Large |
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Mary Peltola (D) |
-120 |
|
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Nick Begich (R) |
-120 |
|
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(Odds imply a tossup election) |
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Arizona-01 |
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|
David Schweikert (R) |
-275 |
|
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Amish Shah (D) |
+185 |
|
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(Odds imply a 73% probability Schweikert will win) |
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Arizona-06 |
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|
Juan Ciscomani (R) |
-170 |
|
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Kirsten Engel (D) |
+130 |
|
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(Odds imply a 63% probability Ciscomani will win) |
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California-13 |
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Adam Gray (D) |
-200 |
|
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John Duarte (R) |
+150 |
|
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(Odds imply a 67% probability Gray will win) |
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California-22 |
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David Valadao (R) |
-120 |
|
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Rudy Salas (D) |
-120 |
|
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(Odds imply a tossup election) |
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California-41 |
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Ken Calvert (R) |
-225 |
|
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Will Rollins (D) |
+160 |
|
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(Odds imply a 69% probability Calvert will win) |
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Florida-13 |
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Anna Paulina Luna (R) |
-1000 |
|
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Whitney Fox (D) |
+550 |
|
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(Odds imply a 91% probability Luna will win) |
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Iowa-01 |
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Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) |
-165 |
|
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Christina Bohannan (D) |
+125 |
|
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(Odds imply a 62% probability Miller-Meeks will win) |
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Iowa-03 |
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|
Zach Nunn (R) |
-400 |
|
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Lanon Baccam (D) |
+250 |
|
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(Odds imply an 80% probability Nunn will win) |
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