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The prediction markets appeared to have it all wrong kicking off 2026. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appears to have been captured and the prediction markets only had this happening with an 8 percent chance just last week.
BetOnline's betting market that asked where Maduro would flee to have closed as well.
The United States hit Venezuela with a “large-scale strike” early Saturday and said its president had been captured and flown out of the country after months of intense pressure onMaduro’s government — an extraordinary nighttime operation announced by President Donald Trump on social media hours after the attack.
The legal authority for the attack, and whether Trump consulted Congress beforehand, was not immediately clear. The stunning American military action, which plucked a nation’s sitting leader from office, echoed the U.S. invasion of Panama that led to the surrender and seizure of its leader, Manuel Antonio Noriega, in 1990 — exactly 36 years ago Saturday.
Kalshi's rules for the departure were as follows:
If Nicolás Maduro leaves office before February 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
An announcement that Nicolás Maduro will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Nicolás Maduro leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
